21-01-2009

The other horse who is interesting at a massive price, if he runs, is Joe Lively. He loves Cheltenham (he has won three times and been placed twice in six starts there), he stays all day and we know now that he handles soft ground. He beat Halcon Genelardais pointless in the Servo Computers race at Cheltenham’s November meeting on his penultimate start. Ok, so he was getting 23lb from the Alan King horse that day and he will be giving him 6lb on Saturday if they both run, but even so, it makes no sense whatsoever that Halcon Genelardais is no better than 4/1 (he is a wholly likeable sort, but he is a horse that people love to back when the ground gets soft) while you can get 33/1 about Joe Lively with Stan James. I’m holding fire for now, as he may not be a runner, but I will be taking a small interest in him as well if he is mooted as an intended runner.

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Hopefully you managed to get the 33/1 that was available about Joe Lively on Wednesday and into Thursday once he was confirmed as a definite intended runner. I didn’t. I missed the 33 and had to take 25, which was a bit of a shame, but the 25/1 was generally available well after he was confirmed a runner, so hopefully you took a bit of that each-way.

Barbers Shop came out, as we hoped and expected and, as a bonus, Albertas Run, An Accordion, Exotic Dancer and Imperial Commander all came out as well, which leaves Joe Lively trading at no better than 12/1. I still think that’s more than fair. The argument for backing him on Wednesday still holds true. He loves Cheltenham, he is a dour stayer and a galloper who will be at home in the conditions, he beat Halcon Genelardais out of sight in the Servo Computers race at today’s track in November, albeit on much more favourable terms, he races handily, and he is reported to have come on a lot since his Welsh National run, when he didn’t run at all badly. Also, Colin Tizzard’s horses have struck a rich vein of form of late. Hopefully you are on already at 33/1 or 25/1 but, in the unlikely event that you are not, even the 12/1 that is available this morning represents a little bit of value.

JOE LIVELY WON (SP 11/1)

24th January, 2009