A good year for five in a row

By Stephen Dwyer

It’s the Friday morning before the 2010 Irish Dubai Duty Free Derby, the calm before the storm. Ten horses stand their ground for a race worth €1.25 million and hopefully a lifetime of hefty stud fees. Heading the market is Aidan O’Brien’s unbeaten Cape Blanco. He is currently the 9/4 favourite having been supported from 5/1.

Already winner of a Dante, beating subsequent Derby winner Workforce, Cape Blanco is a deserved favourite. By Galileo, he rounded off his two-year-old season when claiming the €115,000 (aptly named) Galileo E.b.f. Futurity Stakes when 1/5 favourite. The form of the Dante is strong, equally strong is O’Brien’s will when he failed to trot up the horse in front of the stewards after the Dante. Cape Blanco suffered a bruised heel that day and refused to let the on-course vet inspect him, his trainer was subsequently fined £5, 840.

Having recovered from the Dante bruise, the colt ran three weeks ago in the Prix du Jockey Club, The French Derby, finishing tenth. The ground was blamed that day; Cape Blanco prefers fast ground, which he is sure to get on Sunday. Stable jockey Johnny Murtagh is undecided on riding Cape Blanco or Jan Vermeer. The latter, former favourite for the Epsom Derby, finished 12 lengths behind the winner, in fourth. He is a drifter in the market, out to 11/4 from 9/4 but will surely be suited to the less testing Kildare track. O’Brien commented on the matter, noting “He (Murtagh)has to try and work out whether Jan Vermeer has improved enough since Epsom and why Cape Blanco was disappointing in France and whether he can leave that run way behind him.”

Between the two Ballydoyle horses in the betting is Mark Johnston’s Monterosso. Supplemented during the week for €150,000, this may be money well spent if the horse can improve again. He won the King Edward VII Stakes at Royal Ascot last week and Frankie Dettori takes the ride. Unfortunately Epsom Derby winner Workforce will not be attempting a Derby double after Sir Michael Stoute decided to aim him at the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Ascot on 24 July.

Five of the ten horses are Ballydoyle trained, another Galileo colt, Midas Touch finished just a head behind Jan Vermeer at Epsom and may be worth an each-way bet. He is a very useful sort; having run out a worthy winner of the Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial Stakes where he beat the Dermot Weld trained Address Unknown. He was also third to Jan Vermeer on his maiden start, with the ultra-consistent Behtarini finishing two lengths in front of him in second.

I believe 3/1 is the proper tissue price for the favourite, Cape Blanco. A word of warning though, David Williams of Ladbrokes was heard to say “‘It looks a bookies’ race, you wouldn’t want to hang your hat on any of the Ballydoyle runners”. Aidan O’Brien has five out of ten runners, on paper he has a 50% chance of claiming his eighth winner of the Irish Derby and a never-before-achieved fifth Derby in a row.

I’m from Kilkenny, proud to be, I think it’s a good year for the five in a row, our hurlers are seeking the same so let’s start the party early Aidan.

By Stephen Dwyer