National Hunt Horses to Follow – Ireland, Part I

By James Condron

Back in 2006, I began keeping a detailed account of all bets I placed in a diary. Looking back through the diaries recently, I noticed a common occurrence each year in that profits on the flat generally turned into losses from about mid September each year, due to no doubt the ground deteriorating and the effect of a long tough season leading to horses losing form. From this point on I am going to attempt (fingers crossed!) to tread carefully with bets and stakes on the flat for the remainder of the season. A quick glance at the fixture list shows that the National Hunt season is about to gather pace as the ‘summer horses’ are replaced with stable stalwarts which return season after season, stars at the top of their game and most intriguing of all, horses in the ‘could be anything category’. With the Gowran Champion Chase, Tipperary Hurdle and Like A Butterfly Novice Chase taking place this weekend, it seems an appropriate time to select my ten horses to follow for the Irish National Hunt season, over the next two weeks.

Aladdins Cave (CA Murphy)

The first horse in my list is a potential ‘handicap blot’ over hurdles, Aladdins Cave. The son of Rainbow Quest, out of an Oaks runner up, Flight of Fancy, has already given his owners, the Treasure Hunters a summer to remember winning five handicaps on the flat. His trainer Colm Murphy stated after his most recent victory at Fairyhouse that his charge has not stopped improving over the summer and as the gelding has a habit of winning by short distances, he may be capable of even further improvement still. Looking ahead to his eventual return to the jumping game, the well bred gelding, formerly trained by Gordon Elliott is surely well handicapped with a rating of 103 over hurdles (one should bear in mind that his handicap rating on the flat has risen to 98 from a mark of 58 at the start of the season) and according to connections, he is likely to be kept fresh for a renewed hurdle campaign next spring. Unlike other horses that may look well handicapped over hurdles on their flat form, Aladdins Cave has not shown any apparent aversion to the jumping game, showing in fact a fair level of consistency and resolution over hurdles and his improvement may just be down to the change of scenery and a different approach employed by Colm Murphy.

Arvika Ligeonniere (WP Mullins)

Willie Mullins has made no secret of the high regard that he holds the lightly raced son of Arvico, stating last season that he had the potential to be a quality chaser in the future. Considered by his trainer to be of a good size but ‘leggy’ and ‘light framed’, he travelled better than anything in the Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle at Cheltenham last season, until he tired between the last two flights. The deluge of rain which fell on the Friday of last year’s festival combined with the trip of three miles, no doubt caused his stamina to ebb away close home. Dropping a mile in trip for his final run of the season, Arvika Ligeonniere demolished a field of good novices at Punchestown on good ground showing a potent turn of foot. It is not difficult to imagine the five-year-old being a leading contender for the Arkle next March, especially if he has grown into his frame over the summer and where his ability to stay in excess of the race distance, a common trait displayed by a number of recent Arkle winners, could work in his favour.

Jessies Dream (G Elliott)

Gordon Elliott has had a tremendously successful recent couple of seasons, from the horse that started it all, Silver Birch, winning the Grand National in 2007 to most recently the victory of Dirar in the Tote Ebor handicap at York. Patience and shrewdness are traits that Elliott is becoming renowned for and the confidence exuded in a recent stable tour with the Irish Field regarding Jessies Dream was not difficult to detect, predicting that the son of Presenting will turn out to be a smart novice chaser this season. On the surface, one may argue that Jessies Dream had a disappointing first season over fences, with a slightly disappointing run when favourite for the Grade 2 MCR Novice Chase at Leopardstown when starting 2/1 favourite on the back of a promising debut in an extremely hot beginners’ chase at Leopardstown over Christmas. It was this performance that hints at the enormous potential that the 145 rated hurdler possesses over fences. In a race won by the very talented but equally frustrating Zaarito, but also containing subsequent Grade 1 Novice Chase winners, Citizen Vic and Jadanli, and Chasing Cars, winner of a very good Novice Handicap Chase at the Punchestown festival, Jessies Dream fell two fences from home when travelling very strongly and looking the most likely winner. Given a break after the Grade 2 MCR Novice Chase, Jessies Dream ran a creditable race in the Ladbrokes.com World Series Hurdle at Punchestown to round off the season, despite according to the trainer not being fully wound up for the race. With only eight career starts to date, the lightly raced Jessies Dream could reward his trainer’s patient approach and is very much a novice chaser for punters to follow this season.

Joncol (P Nolan)

Another trainer that has taken a ‘softly softly’ approach is Co. Wexford trainer, Paul Nolan, with last season’s dual Grade 1 winner, Joncol. The Bobs Return gelding followed up his victory in the John Durkan Memorial Chase over 2½ miles at Punchestown in December with a stellar triumph in the Irish Hennessey Gold Cup in February. Nolan’s gelding probably should have completed a Grade 1 hat trick last season, when finishing third in the Lexus Chase behind What A Friend and Money Trix when he went for home far too early after travelling very strongly before fading up the long punishing Leopardstown straight. To be fair to jockey Alan Cawley however, who has ridden him on all his starts last season, he did not make the same mistake again in the Irish Hennessey, timing his challenge to perfection after the last and galvanising his mount to hold off the challenge of Cooldine.

His trainer stated after his Hennessey victory that Joncol would have to improve 20lb to compete with the likes of Kauto Star and Denman, so there was little point in entering him for the Gold Cup. I sincerely hope that Nolan revises his opinion, as the Gold Cup this season looks to be quite open with question marks over a number of those heading the betting. One would have to be concerned whether Kauto Star and Denman, both 11 next year, will show signs of decline this season, it is worth noting that Woodland Venture in 1969 remains the last horse older than 10 to have won the Gold Cup. In addition, Imperial Commander although magnificent in winning last season’s Gold Cup can throw in the odd explicably bad performance, while Weapons Amnesty, last seasons Royal and Sun Alliance winner and an obvious young pretender, may be out for the season.

Joncol, an accurate and sound jumper, surely has further improvement in him as he will only be eight next year and has not accumulated many miles on the clock to this point in his career. The one possible drawback is that he has yet to prove himself on good ground, however, from viewing his races, he seems to be a good mover with a high cruising speed and safe jumping ground should be fine. Whether or not Paul Nolan’s stable star takes his chance against the big boys in March, he will be the one to beat in races such as the Hennessey Gold Cup and Lexus Chase in Ireland this season.

By James Condron