Horses to oppose

By James Condron

Very often opposing certain horses whether by laying the horses in question directly on the exchanges or by backing horses in opposition to them can offer the punter an opportunity to make long term profits, especially if the horses you wish to oppose are likely to be consistently strong in the market. This article highlights a number of horses who I consider are worth opposing this season over the jumps.

Diamond Harry

Concerns expressed regarding the jumping of the imposing son of Sir Harry Lewis proved well founded in the RSA Chase when Timmy Murphy’s mount made a series of blunders before eventually being pulled up. It appears that Nick Williams’s charge is better suited to small fields and soft ground, which do not place pressure on his jumping, such as he encountered in two victories at Haydock and Newbury last season and if racing on good ground or in a decent sized field, Diamond Harry should be opposed.

While there is no doubt that Diamond Harry has stacks of ability, his career is at a cross roads, his jumping will always hold him back in top company over fences and should he return to the staying hurdling ranks, he will encounter the all conquering Big Bucks, who comprehensively beat him at Newbury in the Grade 1 Long Walk Hurdle.

Triumph Hurdle Principals

I strongly believe that last season’s crop of juvenile hurdlers are nowhere as strong as the leading novice hurdlers who ran in the Supreme Novice Hurdle or the Neptune Investment Management Novices’ Hurdle and may struggle this season.

The Triumph Hurdle winner, Soldatino, was the main beneficiary of the way the race panned out, picking up the pieces after being held up when the trail blazing Barizan fluffed the last as he tired. The rain which fell before racing deadened the ground and clearly suited Henderson’s runner whose two previous wins came on soft ground at Kempton and Pau earlier in the season. An ability to handle faster ground is a worry for Soldatino against more experienced hurdlers this season.

The runner up, Barizan, appears on the surface to have franked the form in finishing second in the Matalan Anniversary Novice Hurdle at Aintree before making all to win the Champion Four Year Old Hurdle at Punchestown. However, the running style of the Evan William-trained gelding in setting a scorching early pace combined with his quick and accurate jumping frequently put inexperienced juveniles under pressure last season, may not be enough when taking on the cream of the hurdling division this season. Unless Barizan improves significantly, he may essentially be a sitting duck in the top 2 mile hurdle races setting up races for closers such as Binocular, Khyber Kim and company.

It is difficult to imagine the third and fourth from Cheltenham, Carlito Brigante and Alavian, improving sufficiently to challenge the top Irish hurdlers. Carlito Brigante lacks a change of gear at the top level while Edward O’Grady’s charge appears to need heavy ground to produce his best.

Twist Magic

Who would have thought after exceptional performances in winning last season’s Tingle Creek and Victor Chandler chases that the son of Winged Love would blot his copybook so badly with such disappointing efforts at Cheltenham, Punchestown and Sandown. Indeed his refusal to race in the Boylesports.com Champion Chase at Punchestown in particular left a bitter taste in the mouth and gave the impression that the eight-year-old gelding had fallen out of love with the game.

Despite his trainer’s ascertain in a recent stable tour in the Racing Post Weekender that Twist Magic (likely to be aimed again at the Tingle Creek) is going well in training and that right handed tracks suit him best, it will take a big leap of faith for punters to forgive Twist Magic for his indiscretions last season, notwithstanding his good record early in the season.

Kauto Star and Denman

It seems rather ungrateful to be suggesting that Paul Nicholls’s ‘galacatios’ should be opposed this season considering what they have done for racing but the inescapable fact remains that both will be 11 next year and are entering the autumn of their careers. It is worth noting in this regard that Woodland Venture in 1969 remains the last horse older than 10 to have won the Gold Cup.

Kauto’s campaign this season is likely to be focused on winning an unprecedented fifth consecutive King George, emulating the great Golden Miller, the last horse to win the same championship chase, five years in a row, before attempting to regain the Cheltenham Gold Cup in March. Despite his fantastic record around Kempton, it is no foregone conclusion that Kauto will retain the King George with opponents the calibre of Long Run, Somersby and Planet of Sound, likely to be lining up at the tape. Indeed, it remains to be seen whether the son of Village Star can recover from the mental scars of his horrific fall at Cheltenham last March and may soon begin to show signs of decline.

Denman, meanwhile, recovered from a number of setbacks the previous season, to return with a vengeance winning a second Hennessey off top weight and finishing a gallant second in the Gold Cup last season, before a sub par performance at Punchestown, which can be put down to an aversion to right handed tracks.

Despite this return to form last season, Denman, who according to his trainer can be difficult to train, faces an extremely tough assignment in attempting to win a third Hennessey off a 9lb higher mark than last season, in a race which tends to favour six and seven-year-olds (who have provided eight of last 10 winners) and second season chasers (who have provided seven of the last 10 winners), before a return to the Prestbury Park.

By James Condron