Paddy Power Gold Cup Handicap Chase

By James Condron

The National Hunt season really picks up pace with the Open meeting at Cheltenham this weekend, the highlight of the three day fixture being the Paddy Power Gold Cup Handicap Chase on Saturday. Previous winners include top class performers such as Celestial Gold (2004), Exotic Dancer (2005), Our Vic (2006), Imperial Commander (2008) and last season’s victor, Tranquil Sea. A common trait with all these winners was that they were all progressive horses who had the potential to be top class. Interestingly, a recent article in the Racing Post, by James Pyman in a study of British handicap chases worth £8,000 and over for the period 2005-2010 found that focusing on unexposed handicap chasers, principally second season chasers, until at least Christmas can bring profits and that this season in particular the top established chasers are vulnerable to improving horses.

Looking ahead to the Paddy Power Gold Cup on Saturday, Nicky Henderson looks to hold a strong hand in this year’s race with two second season chasers, last season’s Royal and Sun Alliance Chase third, Long Run who heads the market at 7/2 generally and the lightly raced Mad Max at the time of writing generally available at 10/1.

One of the big talking horses of last season, following impressive victories at Kempton in the Feltham and at Warwick when dropping to two miles, the five-year-old Long Run is likely to attempt to halt Kauto Star’s charge for five King George Chases in a row at Christmas following his seasonal debut at the weekend. There has been much debate over the jumping of the son of Cadoudal and the capabilities of his regular jockey, Sam Waley Cohen, but one would have to be encouraged by the up beat bulletin given by Henderson in a Stable Tour in the Racing Post on Monday stating that his charge schooled well with Yogi Breisner last week. In addition, Henderson stated that Long Run did not look well in his coat at the Festival, as a result of a busy early season campaign in France and has blossomed over the summer growing an extra inch. Long Run is set to carry 11 stone 6 lb, a weight reduced to 11 stone when the claim of his jockey is taken into account. This mark appears very fair and if Long Run’s jumping holds up (to be fair he appeared to be more undone by stamina in the RSA rather than any serious jumping errors); he will prove very difficult to beat. An interesting statistic regarding those horses towards the top of the market; is that seven of the last 10 winners have come from the first three in the betting.

His main opponent could also hail from the Seven Barrows stable in the form of the giant Mad Max. The eight-year-old, who remains lightly raced, probably due to breathing problems he has had in the past, was last seen at Aintree when slamming the Arkle runner up, Somersby and recent Grade 2 Downroyal winner, The Nightingale, over 2½ miles at Aintree. Before this, the son of Kayf Tara, really caught the eye at Cheltenham in the Arkle, where he was bang in contention when clouting the second last, before fading to fourth. A winner first time out for the last three seasons, Henderson is of the opinion that he is a horse that likes to bowl along, attacking his fences and that 2½ miles suits him best. Mad Max could set Long Run a target to attack and if any flaws in Long Run’s jumping are to be exposed, it may be his stable mate who takes advantage.

The first two home in the Byrne Group Plate are also prominent in the betting, Great Endeavour and Sunnyhillboy, both of whom will carry 10-4 and 10-1 respectively. While both are attractively weighted (and second season chasers), and have shown their liking for the track, the suspicion remains that they lack the class of the Henderson runners and may be found wanting on the day.

Interestingly, fans of top weight Poquelin will be cheered by statistics which suggest that weight has not been a major issue in recent runnings of the race, with eight of the last 10 winners carrying at least 10 stone 13 lb and a course record of three wins and two places from six runs over fences on the course. This year however, Nicholls’s charge must compete off a 14lb higher mark than when a 4½ length runner up in last season’s race. This handicap actually must be one of the few big Saturday chases in which Paul Nicholls does not have a great record; the champion trainer has yet to win the race, having to content himself with four places from 16 runners over the last 10 years. Other entries from the champion trainer include recent Haldon Gold Cup winner, Tchico Polos, who apart from feeling the effects of his exertions, has never run at Cheltenham and Gwanako, winless since December 2008.

In conclusion, the claims of Long Run are hard to ignore and of all the runners on Saturday he is the one that is most capable of reaching the upper echelons of the jumping game and in the fullness of time, the 7/2 currently available for Saturday may look value. His stablemate, Mad Max is likely to give him most to worry about.

By James Condron