Beware of the bounce factor

By Alan Conway

The bitterly disappointing performance of Walkon in the Totesport Trophy at Newbury last Friday was not only a bitter pill for punters who backed him, it also ignited an issue that is becoming more and more of a factor in racing. The bounce factor.

Like many theories, the bounce factor is not 100% valid. There is however enough data to suggest that it plays a big part in a horse’s comeback and their future runs. Walkon was the latest of a number of high profile horses that have run very well on their comeback only to perform dismally on their second start.

After the Totesport Trophy, Robert Thornton jockey of Walkon, summed up the performance saying “Second run back for Walkon – that’s all it is”. In effect what he is saying is that Walkon bounced from his comeback race at Ascot. But how does this phenomenon have such an impact on racehorses.

It may well be that horses who have been off the track for a sustained period of time are fully tuned up to win their comeback race and can only regress afterwards. It makes sense. There is no point in bringing a horse back from injury and running it without having it 100% ready to run as the chances of doing further damage are quite high. So there may be an amount of regression in the horse on their next start. There is also the real possibility that the horse may not be as good as they were in their pomp.

When looking at the bounce factor two horses spring to my mind. Former Ryanair Chase winner Taranis and high class two miler Well Chief. Taranis was off the track for three years owing to tendon problems. On his comeback race in January 2010 he won the Argento Chase at Cheltenham.

On his next two starts he finished seventh and fell. To bring a horse back after three years off is an outstanding training performance yet there must be only one way to go when you wind a horse up for their comeback after so long off.

Well Chief also had well documented injury problems. He won his comeback race after been sidelined for two years. He didn’t win for another two years. These are but two examples of where a horse has regressed badly after making a comeback.

Punters can use the bounce factor to their advantage. Perhaps the time to back a horse is on its first race back after a long absence. Perhaps they should then look to lay it on its second start back. On his comeback race, Walkon was allowed to start at 12/1. His price reflected his lengthy absence from the track.

In the Totesport Trophy he was a gambled on 3/1 favourite having been heavily supported throughout the week and on the day of the race. He was backed on the basis that he was race fit after his comeback race and should have improved from Ascot.

His price did not incorporate the bounce factor. His defeat should not have come as a surprise to punters who observe the bounce factor. As with everything in life what goes up must come down. Be sure that the bounce is always in your favour.

By Alan Conway