Checked expectations points to limited festival success

By Alan Conway

As we enter the final countdown to the 2011 Cheltenham festival there has been, from an Irish perspective, a rather low key and muted build-up towards this year’s festival. The Irish challenge is simmering rather than bubbling with expectations. Perhaps it is a reflection of our collective psyche at the moment but it seems that we are travelling to Presbury Park in hope rather than expectation this year.

It could be that we don’t have the battalion of horses that we had in recent years. Often times we would consider that Cheltenham was a failure if we only had a single figure amount of winners. This year the Irish expectations have to be guarded as the strength in depth in the championship races does not look particularly strong. We have a few serious bullets in our chamber but we need them all firing if we are to have the success we have become accustomed to.

To have only one horse in the running for the Champion Hurdle and the Gold Cup is something of a rarity for us. Yet our hopes only rest with Hurricane Fly in the Champion and Pandorama in the Gold Cup. Not forgetting Big Zeb in the Champion Chase. Swings and roundabouts I guess.

Hurricane Fly looks to be our best chance of taking one of the marquee races back across the Irish Sea. He rolls into Cheltenham unbeaten this term and more importantly has had an injury free campaign. It will be fascinating to see how he gets on. In my heart I can see him holding off Menorah, who is the biggest danger, and claiming a first Champion Hurdle for Willie Mullins.

Perhaps the other reason for the cautious build-up is that our supposed big guns have not developed as we thought. Horses like Zaidpour and Mikael D’Haguenet have not lived up to expectations thus far. It is hard to side with either horse on recent form.

One trainer who could have the Irish walking on air is Jessica Harrington. She will saddle Bostons Angel and Oscars Well, both of whom are Grade 1 winners on their last starts. They would also give jockey Robbie Power a fairytale first festival winner.

It could also turn out to be a big festival for Gordon Elliot. He has made huge strides in his training career ever since he burst onto the scene with the Grand National win of Silver Birch. Elliot will saddle Jessies Dream in the RSA and Chicago Grey in the National Hunt Chase. If you were looking for an each way bet Chicago Grey would be the one for me. He has course form which is vitally important and although he puts in the odd mistake he travels for fun and has shown he can get up the hill.

It would be a brave man to say how many winners Ireland will have at Cheltenham this year. We have gone over with stronger hands and have come up short. I think if we manage over six winners Ireland would have been successful. The shifting landscape in Ireland has changed all our expectations but with the Hurricane leading the way that famous Irish roar can be heard time and again.

By Alan Conway