11th-Dec-2011

I was hoping that Rubi Light would be bigger than 5/2 in the face of competition from Joncol and Tranquil Sea, and Kempes even, the established brigade, but I would be happy to back him at 2/1 or better. I think he should be even shorter than that.

While two and a half miles on soft ground is probably ideal for Joncol, it is also ideal for Rubi Light, and Robbie Hennessy’s horse has so much more scope for progression than Joncol. A super jumper, he beat Roberto Goldback pointless in the Red Mills Chase at Gowran Park last February, then ran out of his skin to finish third behind Albertas Run and Kalahari King in the Ryanair Chase at Cheltenham on ground that should have been too fast for him.

On his debut this season, he had Sizing Europe beaten to the ropes when he fell at the last. Okay, so Sizing Europe should have been expected to come on for that run, but maybe not that much, and Henry de Bromhead’s horse all but won the JNwine.com Champion Chase and then did actually win the Tingle Creek on his next two runs.

Rubi Light missed the Down Royal race because of a viral infection, and then Hennessy decided not to send him to Haydock for the Betfair Chase, because he just didn’t think his horse was 100% right, and they are both positives in the context of Sunday’s race. He comes into the race a fresh horse, his trainer reports him to be in fine form, and the ground should be suitably heavy.

Even on official figures, he is the highest-rated horse in the race, he is is rated 2lb, 3lb and 4lb respectively superior to Kempes, Joncol and Tranquil Sea, yet he is only six, he has raced in just eight chases, and he has so much more scope for progression than those three rivals. Hopefully Roi Du Mee doesn’t annoy him up front because, if he can get into a nice rhythm in front, it is easy to see his high cruising speed and fluent jumping having all his rivals in trouble before they turn for home. He is a bet at 5/2.

Joncol is the biggest danger in my book, the 2009 winner, he skipped the Hennessy and he should be fresh for this as well, as should Tranquil Sea, last year’s winner, but it is a little worrying for Joncol that as astute a judge as Barry Geraghty has chosen to ride Tranquil Sea.

RUBI LIGHT WON (ADV 5/2, SP 5/2)