21st-May-2016

I think that it is well worth backing Awtaad for Saturday’s Irish 2000 Guineas now at 7/1.

Winner of his maiden at the back end of last season, Kevin Prendergast’s colt started off this season well by winning the Madrid Handicap at The Curragh by five lengths off a mark of 95.  He stepped up on that to land the Tetrarch Stakes back at The Curragh on his next run, showing a nice turn of foot to come clear of Blue De Vega and keeping on well to win nicely.

Both of those races were run over seven furlongs on soft ground, but he is bred to be even better over a mile, and he should do better on better ground.  By Cape Cross out of a Shamardal mare who stayed 10 furlongs, he has raced just four times in his life, and he has won his last three.  He remains seriously progressive and, while he will have to step up again if he is to win an Irish Guineas, there is every chance that he will progress for his win in the Tetrarch Stakes, a race that has been won in the past by top class horses like Desert King and Creachadoir and Royal Academy. 

Galileo Gold sets a high standard, and Newmarket Guineas winners have a good record in the Irish Guineas.  However, the three shortest-priced horses in the Newmarket Guineas this year finished third last, second last and last, they may not have run their races there.  Fifth-placed Kentuckyconnection went into the race with a rating of 90, and he was only beaten just over five lengths. 

Air Force Blue could bounce back, with the tongue-tie removed, but he is a risky project for now, and he is short enough for Saturday’s race at no better than 3/1.  Awtaad is the value of the race in my book.

AWTAAD WON (ADV 7/1, SP 9/2)