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Sir Des Champs battled on well to win the Grade 2 two-and-a-half-mile novices’ chase at Leopardstown on Saturday.

“He’s a course winner so we won’t be leaving him at home,” said winning trainer Willie Mullins afterwards when asked about Cheltenham. (They’re always asked about Cheltenham these days.) “The Jewson, perhaps,” he said, “or maybe the RSA Chase.”

When Boston Bob won the Grade 2 novices’ hurdle on Sunday, Ladbrokes said 4/1 for the Neptune Hurdle, Mullins said maybe the Albert Bartlett. He could have said the same thing about third-placed Make Your Mark, but he didn’t. He just said we’ll find something easier for him now.

Decisions, decisions. Options are good, but too many moving parts fosters instability. Mullins is not alone in facing into a six-week period of head-scratching to go with the six more weeks of eggshell-treading.

Grands Crus will go in either the Gold Cup or the RSA Chase, Oscar Whisky goes in the World Hurdle or the Champion Hurdle (60-40), Fingal Bay goes in the Albert Bartlett or the Neptune, Voler La Vedette goes in the Mares’ Hurdle or the World Hurdle, Captain Chris goes in the Gold Cup or the Ryanair Chase or doesn’t go at all, Somersby goes in the Ryanair, but he might go in the Queen Mother.

The availability of options at the Cheltenham Festival is not a new phenomenon. The majority of Supreme Novices’ Hurdle horses have also had the Neptune Hurdle option (and vice versa) since the inauguration of the latter contest in 1971, in the same way as the Grand Annual horse who stayed two miles well could always run in the Byrne Group Plate instead.

Also, the idea of novices running in the championship races is not a new one – Captain Christy was a novice when he won the Gold Cup, Make A Stand was a novice when he won the Champion Hurdle – nor is the idea of juvenile hurdlers running in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle instead of in the Triumph, a la Hors La Loi.

However, the phenomenon seems to have exploded in recent years. The number of high-profile horses with Cheltenham Festival targets unconfirmed just a couple of weeks out seems to be perennially on the increase.

There seems to have been a change in attitude among trainers, more forward-thinking, a more open-minded outlook on the Festival. It used to be the case that, generally, if you had a top class two-mile novice chaser, you ran him in the Arkle, or if you had a top class staying novice chaser, you ran him in the RSA Chase. This year, Paul Nicholls entered Al Ferof in the Champion Chase as well as the Arkle, while Nicky Henderson entered Bobs Worth in the World Hurdle and David Pipe entered Grands Crus in the Gold Cup, despite the fact that the RSA Chase is the most logical race for both.

There are also decisions that will be influenced or determined by other decisions. Like, if Grands Crus runs in the Gold Cup instead of in the RSA Chase, does that mean that a horse like Champion Court will run in the RSA instead of in the Jewson? If Mouse Morris runs First Lieutenant and Philip Fenton runs Last Instalment in the RSA Chase, does that mean that Willie Mullins will have to run another Gigginstown House horse Sir Des Champs in the Jewson? And where would Bog Warrior run then?

Of course, the primary reason for the recent uncertainly concerning targets is the increase in the number of races run at the Festival, the proliferation of options with most horse-preferences catered for specifically (with the notable exception of the horse who wants to go right-handed on a flat track on soft ground). It is difficult for trainers, trying to pin down races, it is difficult for jockeys, trying to pin down rides, and it is difficult for punters, trying to pin down runners not to mind winners. That is not a good thing for a Festival that thrives on the build-up.

For years, there were 18 races at the Cheltenham Festival – three days, six races each day – until 1992, when first the bumper and then the Coral Cup saw the total number rise to 20. There are now 27. That’s an increase of 50% in 20 years, and of 35% in seven.

In one sense it is progress, it proves that racing has the ability to capitalise on a huge success story, and it means that more owners and trainers and riders have the opportunity to experience what it is to have a Cheltenham Festival winner. In another, however, there is a need to be wary of spreading the jam too thinly. A Cheltenham Festival winner is so special because it is so rare. With every added race you dilute it, every extra drop reduces its potency just a little.

Some of the new races, like the Ryanair Chase, work well. Some of the others, not so well. Time now to leave it alone, consolidate, allow the 27 races settle. There are enough races now, too many if anything. Savour the Cheltenham Festival as it stands, leave the eco-system as it is. It is too precious to risk changing again any time soon.

© The Racing Post, 31st January 2012

I wouldn’t go losing faith in Blackstairmountain after his fifth-place finish behind Flemenstar in the Arkle on Sunday at Leopardstown. The ground on Saturday was yielding, good in places, on the Chase course, and that would have suited well, but persistent rain overnight and through Sunday had changed the ground to soft by start of racing on Sunday, that had worsened to soft to heavy before the Arkle and deteriorated further to heavy all round after the race, and that would have been just far too soft for him. Flemenstar is a top class chaser in these conditions, even Notus De La Tour, for whom the ground had also come right, was no match for the winner, and Blackstairmountain simply never looked happy.

A 151-rated hurdler, Blackstairmountain was good enough to win the Champion Novice Hurdle at Punchestown in 2010, when he had Flat Out and Loosen My Load behind him, and he got to within a length and a half of Voler La Vedette at Fairyhouse last season, when he looked home for all money after taking it up over the final flight, both of those runs coming on his favoured sound surface.

He made a pleasing chase debut at Clonmel at the start of December, and followed that up by winning the Racing Post Novice Chase at Leopardstown over Christmas. The ground was officially yielding to soft that day, but was probably riding slightly better than that, and he showed a likeable attitude to wear down Notus De La Tour after the last and draw away late on. He often looked like a weak finished over hurdles – remarkably, he has traded at 1.01 three times before getting beaten – but that issue seems to be behind him now over fences and after undergoing a wind operation. On top of that, he wore a tongue-tie on his first two runs over fences, but that piece of equipment was absent on Sunday. You can easily ignore this run.

It may be that he doesn’t quite have the pace to win an Arkle at Cheltenham, but he did run well enough at the Festival last season when seventh, beaten only four lengths, behind stable companion Final Approach in the County Hurdle. Bookmakers may have over-reacted in pushing him out from 14/1 to as big as 25/1 for the Arkle. He would also be of interest if Willie Mullins allowed him take his chance in the Grand Annual, if the UK mark that he was awarded was close to his Irish mark of 146. He will be of interest whenever he runs next on goodish ground.

29th January 2012

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Sir Des Champs continued his winning run on Saturday in the Grade 2 novices’ chase over two miles and five furlongs at Leopardstown, which means that he has now won six in a row and all five since coming over from France. He did well to win on Saturday, he was under pressure around the home turn and he made a fairly bad mistake at the last, but he picked up well to beat Hidden Cyclone and Fists Of Fury. Fists Of Fury is probably not top class, he had been beaten a long way in a novices’ chase at Cheltenham previously, and Hidden Cyclone may have been a bit below himself, but it was still a fine performance from the winner, who just keeps on progressing.

He is not flashy, but he just keeps on getting the job done, and the form of his two previous runs over fences has worked out well. Gran Torino, whom he beat in his beginners’ chase, won next time out, with Mackeys Forge, who was third in that beginners’ chase, running a nice race when narrowly giving best to Shot From The Hip at Fairyhouse on his only subsequent start to date. Knockfierna, who was still narrowly in front of Sir Des Champs in the Grade 2 Greenmount Park Novice Chase at Limerick over Christmas when running out, won a Grade 3 herself next time.

The Willie Mullins-trained gelding’s form looks strong, he added another Grade 2 on Saturday, and he has earned himself another visit to Cheltenham now. He did remarkably well to win the Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle at last year’s Festival from so far back on just his second run for Willie Mullins, proving the uphill finish at Cheltenham suits him well. Which race he runs in at this year’s Festival in is another matter. He stayed the two-mile-five-furlong trip so strongly at last year’s Festival, and stayed on well again to win here, that maybe the RSA Chase is the race for him at Cheltenham, not the Jewson. The complication is that his owners, Gigginstown House Stud, have two equally viable candidates for the race in another unbeaten chaser, the hugely impressive Last Instalment, and last year’s Neptune Novices’ Hurdle winner First Lieutenant. Willie Mullins has won three of the last 13 runnings of the RSA Chase though, and if Sir Des Champs takes his chance in it, he will be a serious player. He will be a player in whichever race he ends up contesting.

28th January 2012

The Giant Bolster had provided a hint that he might be getting his act together when he was an encouraging staying-on second to Time For Rupert in a graduation chase at Newbury in December, and he bounced back to form emphatically at Cheltenham on Saturday. He was winning on Festival Trials Day for the second successive year (he won the novice handicap chase last year), he jumped nicely out in front, he was ridden aggressively and he won extremely well in a really good time, despite having no company for most of the race. He blew the opposition away from the third last, Poquelin, a five-time course winner (although admittedly conceding plenty of weight on Saturday), could finish only 17 lengths back in second and there were wide gaps back to the rest.

The Giant Bolster has always had the talent – he was good enough to finish sixth to Peddlers Cross in the 2010 Neptune Hurdle (when starting at 200/1) and, now that he has jumped another clear round, he can go about fulfilling his potential. He has had well-documented jumping difficulties and, being a small horse, he can find it hard fighting for position in a big field, but riding him out in front is probably the key to him now. He could be good enough for the Ryanair, he could well be that good, although he is not entered in the race and would have to be supplemented.

A 15lb rise appears harsh on the face of it, it leaves him on a mark of 160, but it may not be a mark that is beyond him, and he would be of interest if he took his chance in the Racing Plus Chase (the old Racing Post Chase) at Kempton on 25th February. He would have top weight in that race if he took his chance in it, unless Captain Chris ran as well, but high weights can do well at Kempton, and specifically in that race (10 of the last 13 winners carried 11st or more, and three of the last eight carried top weight of 11st 12lb), and front-runners and prominent racers have a good record at the track generally and in the race specifically. He would be interesting bowling along in front in a big handicap over three miles at Kempton.

David Bridgwater’s horse could improve again if he learned to be just a little less ponderous at a fence when he meets one wrong. That may come with time, this was just his ninth chase and his jumping has been better in his last three runs now. Three completed rounds, as well as this wide-margin success, means his confidence should be at an all-time high, and he could yet have a big future. He is only seven, he still has plenty of scope for progression, and he should prove himself to be a fair bit better than a handicapper.

28th January 2012

Bless The Wings marked himself down as very much a chaser on the up by winning the two-mile-five-furlong novices’ handicap chase at Cheltenham on Saturday in good style. He travelled well through the race, he was wider than ideal, and he jumps a little to his right, so he did well to win as he did. He might not have won had That’lldoboy not fallen, but he jumped the last fence like a horse who had a lot left to give, and he just idled on the run-in which kept the winning margin at two and a half lengths.

He is better than the bare form of this (although there were plenty of fallers in the race so the race may have taken less winning than it might have), and he remains progressive. He kept on well to finish second to Our Mick at Kempton over Christmas, taking advantage of That’lldoboy’s fall there too. The winner has gone on to land a Grade 2 at Haydock since, and is now rated 19lb higher than the mark off which he raced at Kempton, so Alan King’s horse is still more than feasibly handicapped on an 11lb higher mark now, 3lb for his Kempton run and another 8lb for winning on Saturday. That leaves him on a mark of 138, a perfect mark for the Centenary Chase at the Festival. He is progressive enough to cope with that rise, and he is likely to head straight there now as any further rise would put his chances of competing in that race in jeopardy (it is a 0-140 contest). He would also be of interest if he was stepped up in trip for the JLT Specialty Chase (the former William Hill Trophy), now that he is proven around Cheltenham, putting in an accurate round of jumping. Also, given the fact that he jumped right-handed a little here, he will also be of interest returned to a right-handed track.

28th January 2012

That’lldoboy was in the process of running another really good race in the novices’ handicap chase over two miles and five furlongs at Cheltenham on Saturday when he came down three from home. He has not run a bad race all season, and he had moved right into contention on the outside, looking a big danger to all, when he came to grief. He was traveling at least as well as the winner at the time, probably better, and he was handicapped to beat the winner, Bless The Wings, on their Kempton running previously, so he had to have gone very close if he hadn’t have fallen.

Each one of his five runs this season prior to Saturday had been a step up on the previous one, and he looked all set to put in another career-best off a career-high mark here. It is hard to say how close he would have gone towards catching Our Mick at Kempton on his previous run, he was well behind around the home turn but was staying on strongly early in the home straight when he came down at the second last, and he might well have given the winner a real race. Of course it is not ideal now that he has fallen on his last two runs, especially if he is to head to the Festival where the pace may be even stronger, but he actually is not a bad jumper in the main. Significantly, that Kempton race is working out really well now, with Our Mick having followed up by winning a Grade 2 (probably a weak race for the grade, but a Grade 2 nonetheless) at Haydock, and the runner-up, Bless The Wings, going one better here off a 3lb higher mark.

That’lldoboy’s fall on Saturday came too far out for the handicapper to adjust his mark again, so he undoubtedly remains well handicapped. His mark of 127 may not be high enough to get him into the Centenary Chase at the Festival (132 was the mark required to get in last year), but it should see him get a place in the Byrne Group Plate field, and that would be a viable target for him now. He is proven around Cheltenham despite falling here, he ran well at the track in December, and he has progressed again since then. He is only six, this was just his sixth run over fences, and he is still very much one to keep on side.

28th January 2012

The more the days and the trials trickle by, the more the Queen Mother Champion Chase is looking like Maguire & Paterson – an Irish match.

The latest installment in the saga was played out on Ascot Racecourse in Berkshire last weekend, when Somersby got up on the rail in the Victor Chandler Chase to prick the Al Ferof bubble and to gently ease some of the air out of the Finian’s Rainbow one that had been all a-swell.

Natural inclination is to conclude that Big Zeb is too old and too long in the tooth to win a Champion Chase, an 11-year-old who has raced 21 times over fences. After all, the great Moscow Flyer is the only horse aged older than 10 to win the race since Mouse Morris rode Skymas to win the race as a 12-year-old (Skymas, that is, not Mouse) in 1977. That’s 35 years ago.

However, Colm Murphy’s horse isn’t acting like an 11-year-old these days. He gave a race-fit Noble Prince 5lb and a two-length beating in the Fortria Chase on his seasonal debut, then he beat the same rival again in the Paddy Power Dial-A-Bet Chase at Leopardstown over Christmas, displaying a fine turn of foot from the last fence off a fairly sedate early pace on unusually good ground. Next stop Tied Cottage Chase at Punchestown, then Cheltenham. Same as usual then.

The Tied Cottage is also the preferred stepping stone for reigning Champion Chaser Sizing Europe, a sprightly 10-year-old by comparison. If there were any doubts about the Henry de Bromhead-trained gelding trading some of his speed for stamina as he entered his 11th year, after he almost got home over three miles in the JNwine.com Chase at Down Royal in November, those doubts were scuppered by a scintillating performance in the Tingle Creek Chase at Sandown the following month. He has been off enjoying a nice break, and the Tied Cottage should put him spot on for Cheltenham.

Worthy would-be adversaries are thin on the ground now. Finian’s Rainbow remains a contender, but his case was severely weakened by his defeat in the Victor Chandler. Al Ferof will now go for the Arkle, Peddlers Cross will surely do likewise, Somersby should run in the Ryanair, as should Gauvain and Kauto Stone, if they go to Cheltenham, and Wishfull Thinking, for that matter, even if he can recover last season’s form. Hold Fast is a potential contender, he has the propensity to improve, but he has to improve an awful lot from his Sandown win – impressive though it was – if he is to manoeuvre himself into a position from whence he could challenge for the Champion Chase crown.

Irish horses look set to dominate again this year in a race in which Klairon Davis was the only Irish winner in the 17 years that separated Buck House and Moscow Flyer. In a fairly sudden about-turn, Ireland has now won five of the last nine renewals, and were responsible for the first four home last year, and this dominance shows no sign of waning.

Hurricane back

It will be great to see Hurricane Fly back on the racetrack at Leopardstown tomorrow. He may not be at his brilliant best on his seasonal debut habitually, he may have only just got home by a neck from Donnas Palm in the Royal Bond Hurdle on his debut in 2008/09, recording the second-lowest Racing Post Rating of his Irish career (his lowest was on his Irish debut), and he may have finished third behind Solwhit and Muirhead in the Morgiana Hurdle – his only defeat ever on Irish soil – on his 2009/10 debut, but he is a special horse, and it is worthwhile making the effort to go see special horses race.

Oscar where

Since the start of the season, we have been told that Oscar Whisky’s Cheltenham Festival target was definitely the World Hurdle. He will have his final run before Cheltenham in the Welsh Champion Hurdle at Ffos Las over two miles, we were told, but that is only because his owner, Dai Walters, is chairman of that racetrack, and the World Hurdle is definitely the plan. His entry in the Champion Hurdle at Cheltenham is purely precautionary, just like you might enter Bobs Worth in the World Hurdle as well as in the RSA Chase.

Then the owner says during the week that his horse is on track for the World Hurdle. Fine. That he is 60-40 to run in that race. Definitely 60-40. So, not so definitely, actually.

About turn

Strange the way the world works. The highly capable Paul Struthers leaves his position as BHA’s head of communications in the middle of November, the apparent sacrificial lamb, wheeled out in the middle of the whip rule debacle, as others cower under the group-decision blanket. Two months later, he shows up as the new chief executive of the Professional Jockeys’ Association, whose primary immediate task will be to help negotiate (nay, reason) with the BHA in order to help mould the whip rules – such as they are – into a form that will be acceptable to members of his new association.

From frying pan to fire before you can say whose-idea-was-it-to-introduce-the-new-rules-five-days-before-Champions-Day-anyway. Had Paul Bittar not been appointed as the BHA’s new chief executive in the interim, they could have sold tickets to Struthers’s first meeting with his old employers.

Thought for the week

It’s not all about winning – it’s just about covering the spread.

© The Irish Field, 28th January 2012