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Sizing Tennessee would surely have won the 3m novices’ chase had he not fallen at the second last fence. Sent to the front early on by Bryan Cooper, he allowed Black Corton take it up from him at the top of the hill, but he travelled well down the hill again, and moved up on the outside of Paul Nicholls’ horse on the run to the home turn, where he went on. He was travelling best and was in front on the run to the second last fence, but he just got in too tight to it and came down.

Second to Black Corton at Newton Abbot over 2m 5f on his previous run, but 8lb better off here, he seemed to get his second wind on the run down the hill, he was probably all set to show improved form for this first attempt at 3m, and he will be of interest now over 3m again. He is nine, but this was just his sixth run over fences, so he still has potential for progression. He jumped a little to his right here, so he might do even better back on a right-handed track. He is a second-season novice, so he may have an edge over his rivals in novice chases at this stage of the season, but he is also interestingly-handicapped on a mark of 140.

Cheltenham, 27^th October 2017

Cogry

Cogry was very good in winning the 3m 1f handicap chase that opened proceedings at Cheltenham on Saturday. Settled in second place behind the early pace-setter Sonneofpresenting, he wasn’t helped by the fact that the leader jumped a bit to his right and that he jumped a bit to his left in behind through the early stages of the race, and he made a fairly significant mistake at the first ditch on the far side. That said, for a horse who has a fair few non-completions on his CV, his jumping was good. He travelled well down the hill, moved into the lead after they had jumped the third last fence and, even though favourite Singlefarmpayment and Viconte De Noyer moved up threateningly on the run to the home turn, once Cogry kicked off the home turn, it never looked likely that he would be caught. He was a little long at the last, there wasn’t much margin for error but, once on the landing side, he kept on well up the hill and he probably won with more in hand than the four-length winning margin. He was probably getting a little lonely in front.

This was a nice performance from Nigel Twiston-Davies’ horse. He does have jumping frailties, but he obviously has talent and he can be very good when he puts in a clear round as he did here, and as he did when he finished second in the Scottish National last April, beaten just a neck by Vicente. To that end, Sam Twiston-Davies could be key, his record on Cogry over jumps now reads 11812121.

The handicapper raised Cogry by 6lb for this to a mark of 139, but this was his seasonal debut and, despite the fact that he was strong in the market beforehand, some of the paddock-watchers suggested that he could improve for the run. He should also be even better with an even sterner stamina test. It seems like he has been around for ages, and he might be under-rated as a result, but he is only eight, this was probably a career-best performance, and there could still be more to come.

Cheltenham, 28^th October 2017

Le Prezien

Le Prezien ran a cracker to finish second to Foxtail Hill in the 2m handicap chase. He made a mistake at the first fence, but he settled into a nice rhythm after that behind the fast pace that the ultimate winner set. Moved to the outside down the back straight by Barry Geraghty, he made nice progress towards the lead, moved well down the hill and over the third last, and moved in between Foxtail Hill and Sizing Platinum as they rounded the home turn. At that point, he looked like the most likely winner, but he just couldn’t get past Foxtail Hill over the last two fences. He got to within a neck of him, and that pair of them quickened up impressively and pulled well clear of their rivals. It was a great battle between the pair of them, they clocked a good time, 0.24secs/furlong faster than Racing Post par, and both horses emerged from it with their reputations enhanced.

Le Prezien was strong in the market for this, his seasonal debut, but it is still reasonable to expect that he will improve. He is only six and this was just his seventh race over fences. Also, there is room for improvement in his fluency over his fences, and he could do even better stepped up from this 2m trip to 2m 4f. He has always been highly regarded, and he could continue his progression this season.

Cheltenham, 28^th October 2017

Cloudy Dream

Cloudy Dream ran a big race to finish second to Smad Place in the Old Roan Chase, and he might have won had the ball hopped a little differently for him. Held up in rear through the early stages of the race by Brian Hughes, Malcolm Jefferson’s horse travelled well, he moved up nicely down the back straight, moved into third place behind Royal Regatta and Smad Place as they rounded the home turn, and challenged new leader Smad Place on the run to the last. It appeared as if he was going much better than Alan King’s horse at that stage, but he was a little short of room on the inside on the run to the last, and he got in tight to the obstacle as Smad Place flew it and landed running. He closed on the run-in all the way to the line, but he just didn’t have enough time to get there. He is a horse who probably doesn’t want to be in front for too long – remember that he was beaten by the rallying Flying Angel in the Grade 1 Manifesto Chase over this course and distance in April having hit the front on the run to the last – but he is a horse with lots of talent and he has lots of scope for progression.

An unlucky-looking second in the Scottish Champion Hurdle on his last run over hurdles in April 2016, he is only seven and this was just his eighth run over fences. Second to Altior in the Arkle last March after Charbel had departed at the second last, and winner of a Grade 2 novices’ chase at Ayr last April, he has never been out of the first three in his life, and he has never been out of the first two over fences. He stays this two and a half miles, and he could make his mark in graded chases this season, but he would also be interesting in a good handicap off this mark of 155.

Aintree, 29^th October 2017

Presenting Percy

There was an awful lot to like about the performance that Presenting Percy put up in winning the 2m 6f beginners’ chase. He travelled well throughout for Davy Russell, and his jumping was very good. He moved up nicely in fourth place on the outside on the run into the Dip, and he jumped the last two fences really well, with the result that he landed over the last in front. He had De Plotting Shed on his inside at that point, and the pair of them picked up and quickened around the home turn, but it always looked like Presenting Percy was travelling better, and he stayed on best of all up the hill to post an impressive victory.

Pat Kelly’s horse won the Pertemps Final at Cheltenham last March, so this 2m 6f, combined with a not overly-fast early pace, would not have been ideal for him. But he showed a lot of pace into and out of the Dip before his stamina probably kicked in as they started up the hill.

This is usually a very good beginners’ chase. It has been won in the past by China Rock, Lyreen Legend, Last Instalment, Jessies Dream, Very Wood and, in 2013 by Don Cossack, and it looked like a particularly hot contest this season with Sutton Manor and Mall Dini and Free Expression in the race as well as the first two home. This is a race that could throw up a few horses who could take a high rank among the staying novice chasers this season, and both Presenting Percy and De Plotting Shed should progress from this now, but Presenting Percy is the most exciting horse to take from the race at this stage. He was weak enough in the market, he is more lightly-raced and he is only six. He has lots of scope for progression. Also, as a Cheltenham Festival winner, he can go on any shortlist for the Cheltenham Festival already, trained by a man who has top form in that regard, given that he has sent out the winners of the last two renewals of the Pertemps Final. The RSA Chase looks like a legitimate target for Presenting Percy at this stage.

Galway, 29^th October 2017

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The 2017/18 National Hunt season has been smouldering away in the background for a few weeks now, a mere warm glow behind the fireworks that Enable and Cracksman and Aidan O’Brien have been generating on the Flat.  Before very long, however, the National Hunt kindling will generate the winter blaze, and here are five horses who may fan the flames as the season develops. 

Road To Respect (Noel Meade)

Road To Respect was a highly progressive novice chaser last season.  Winner of his beginners’ chase on his first attempt over fences at Naas last November, he ran some good races in defeat before going to the Cheltenham Festival in March and winning the big two-and-a-half-mile handicap chase.  Then he came back to Fairyhouse in April and beat Yorkhill in the Grade 1 Ryanair Chase.

The Gigginstown House horse was undoubtedly aided by Yorkhill’s left-leaning tendencies at right-handed Fairyhouse that day, but he still battled back well from the final fence to get up and win by a neck over a distance that was probably shorter than ideal.  Stepped up to three miles on his debut this season at Punchestown 10 days ago, he put up a nice performance to win the Grade 3 Irish Daily Star Chase, when he had 160+ rated horses Sub Lieutenant and Minella Rocco and Carlingford Lough behind him.

It is not beyond the bounds of possibility that Noel Meade’s horse could morph into a Gold Cup contender this season.  He has to improve significantly in order to do so, but he has the potential to do that.  He is only six years old, and there is no telling how high these six-year-old staying chasers can go when they start to improve.  Sizing John and Kicking King and War Of Attrition were all merely six-year-olds with potential five months before they won their respective Gold Cups. 

Road To Respect stays three miles, goes on good ground and is proven at the Cheltenham Festival and, a three-parts brother to the Noel Meade/Gigginstown House horse Road To Riches, who finished third in the Gold Cup in 2015, even if he does not prove to be good enough for the Blue Riband, it should still be worth following him through the season.

Coney Island (Eddie Harty)

Like Road To Respect, Coney Island is a six-year-old staying chaser who is bursting with potential.

A progressive staying novice hurdler two seasons ago, JP McManus’ horse ran just three times last season.  Second in his beginners’ chase at Punchestown in November, he stepped forward significantly from that to win the Grade 1 Drinmore Chase at Fairyhouse in December.  Then he ran a cracker to finish a close-up second to Our Duke in the Grade 1 Neville Hotels Novice Chase at Leopardstown’s Christmas Festival, when a more fluent round of jumping might have seen him home. 

That form looks even better now than it did then, with Our Duke going on to win the Irish Grand National, and third-placed Disko winning the Grade 1 Flogas Chase at Leopardstown in February and the Grade 1 Growise Chase at Punchestown in April. 

From the family of Wichita Lineman and Rhinestown Cowboy, the Eddie Harty-trained gelding stays well and jumps well and has a touch of class.  He goes on good ground and he goes on soft ground, and he will be of interest in all the top staying chases.

Total Recall (Willie Mullins)

Total Recall improved significantly on anything that he had done before in winning the JT McNamara Munster National at Limerick three weeks ago on his debut for Willie Mullins.

Strong in the market all day, he jumped well for Ruby Walsh as he made his way stealthily through his field, avoiding the fallers along the way.   He and Alpha Des Obeaux came clear from the top of the home straight, but Total Recall appeared to always have the measure of Mouse Morris’ horse, and he stayed on strongly to win impressively.

The handicapper raised him by 18lb for that win, which was not insignificant, but he still may be better than his current rating of 147.  He could be a horse for the Ladbrokes Trophy (the old Hennessy Gold Cup) at Newbury in early December, but he will be of interest in any of the big staying handicap chases that he contests now. 

Charbel (Kim Bailey)

Winner of two of his three bumpers for Tom Mullins in the spring of 2015, and a progressive novice hurdler two seasons ago, Charbel continued his progression last season over fences. 

He beat Le Prezien and Top Notch on his chasing bow at Uttoxeter last October and, second to the mighty Altior in the Henry VIII Chase at Sandown in December, he was in the process of giving Nicky Henderson’s horse a real race in the Arkle at Cheltenham in March when he came down at the second last fence.

A bold-jumping front-runner who likes to race aggressively, Kim Bailey’s horse is effective over two miles, but he would also be interesting going out in trip to two and a half, which might not be a bad plan anyway, with the monsters Altior and Douvan swimming in the deep two-mile waters.

Sutton Place (Gordon Elliott)

Winner of his bumper and of two of his three hurdle races two seasons ago, the plan to send Sutton Place over fences last season was postponed because he was just a little late coming in.  He spent another season over hurdles, winning a Grade 3 and a Grade 2 contest before being pulled up in the Grade 1 Champion Stayers Hurdle at the Punchestown Festival. 

That was worrying at the time but, built to jump fences, he is reportedly fine now and all set to embark on his chasing career.  He has plenty of pace, four of his five wins to date have been over two miles, but it may be that he will excel over staying trips, and he could take a high rank among the top staying novice chasers this season. 

© The Sunday Times, 29th October 2017

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Okay, so the weather wasn’t great and the ground was soft, but Qipco British Champions Day at Ascot last Saturday was still a success.

It had the right ingredients: top class racehorses.  Enable was obviously missing and Ulysses was a 10^th-hour scratching, and we were missing the five-furlong speedballs, Battaash and Marsha and Lady Aurelia, but we had the best six-furlong horses and the best milers and the best fillies (outside of Enable) and the best middle-distance horses (outside of Enable and Ulysses). 

The human victors too enhanced the ‘champion’ theme: John Gosden and Aidan O’Brien and Ryan Moore and Frankie Dettori, and a refreshing breakthrough Group 1 win by Dean Ivory.

Dettori lights up Ascot like Dettori lights up nowhere else, and any Ascot meeting at which he has a Group 1 double is well on its way to success before another ball is kicked.  Add that to an outlandish performance by Cracksman in the Champion Stakes itself, a race in which, according to Timeform, he clocked a faster time for the final furlong (after running nine) than any other horse clocked on the day, even after running just five or seven.  The headline writers on Saturday evening were spoiled for choice.

British Champions Day has now embedded itself nicely into the European Pattern and into the international calendar.  Irish Champions Weekend in Ireland in mid-September, Arc weekend in France in early October, British Champions Day in Britain in mid-October, Breeders’ Cup weekend in America in early November. 

You don’t have to run at all four meetings, but you can.  Found ran at all four in 2015 and again in 2016, and has a Breeders’ Cup Turf and an Arc de Triomphe to show for it.  Indeed, she only finished outside the first three once and only twice finished outside the first two in those eight runs.

This year, Hydrangea won the Matron Stakes in Ireland, was beaten a head by Rhododendron in the Prix de l’Opera in France, and won the Fillies & Mare Stakes in Britain.  Order Of St George won the Irish Leger, finished fourth in the Arc and won the Long Distance Cup.  Ribchester won the Prix du Moulin, finished second in the QE2 and is now on track for America.  It’s tough to do all four meetings – you don’t happen upon a filly like Found very often – but to run at three, and to run your race at three, is more than possible.

Inside track should be given a chance

There were a couple of issues arising out of Champions Day.  The late off-times was one.  The Champion Stakes went off almost 12 minutes late, and that is not good enough for a race that is of major international interest.  

Part of the delay was down to Barney Roy initially being saddled with the incorrect saddlecloth, but the previous race, the QE2, scheduled for 3.15pm, actually went off at 3.23:41.  That’s eight minutes and 41 seconds late. 

And it was not ideal that racing took place on ground that was soft, soft to heavy in places and into a strong headwind.  There is not a lot that you can do about the wind or the rain, but there is the contingent plan to race on the inside track.  On Thursday morning, the ground on the inside track was good to firm, firm in places, presumably because it was not watered during the summer.  The decision to race on the main track was taken on Thursday morning, before declarations.

Presumably the thinking behind the timing of the decision is that it is taken before declarations, so that connections will know on what track they will be racing before they decide to declare.  However, it would have been a brave call, to decide move to the inside track 48 hours before racing, even if the weather forecast was not great.

The facility to move to the inside track is a great facility to have, but perhaps the utilisation of that facility should be given a better chance.  Perhaps Ascot would need time to prepare the track, but is it really that important that a decision on which track racing will take place is taken before declarations?  In America in inclement conditions, they move from turf to dirt at very short notice.

Putting 25 Group 1 wins into context

How do you put 25 Group 1 wins into context?  A world record?

When Librisa Breeze won the British Champions Sprint Stakes at Ascot on Saturday, he brought up Dean Ivory’s first Group 1 win.  Dean Ivory is a top trainer, he trained Miss George to win a listed race at Lingfield in 2004, yet he had to wait another 13 years for his first Group 1.

He trained Sirius Prospect and Caspian Prince and he went close to landing a Group 1 with Tropics, who was beaten a nose by Muhaarar in the 2015 July Cup.  That was gutting.  That’s how elusive Group 1 wins are, but it does give some sort of perspective to 25 in a year.

It’s a world record.  Run a hundred metres in 9.58 seconds, jump over a bar that is two and a half metres high, run a marathon in two hours and two and a half minutes.  That’s the context.

You always hear Aidan O’Brien refer to the team.  He means it, of course, he name-checks them: all the people who were happy with the horse in the lead up to the race.  What he doesn’t tell you is that it is he who is responsible for the team.

It is Aidan himself who has assembled the team, who has picked the members, who manages the team, who determines the culture of the team.  The trainer probably can’t groom or wash or feed every horse, and he certainly can’t ride every winner, in the same way as the manager can’t win the ball or stick it in the back of the net.

But it is the manager who is responsible for the team.  It is the manager who has picked the team and who has managed the players and who has put it all together.  That’s Aidan O’Brien. 

This game would tame lions

Just shows you, the fragility of racehorses.  Fayonagh was just doing a routine canter on Wednesday morning with Davy Russell, she wasn’t even doing a full piece of work, when she suffered that fatal injury.

It’s desperate for everyone involved.  For Davy Russell, who was riding her at the time and who rode her to win her maiden hurdle, for Jamie Codd, who rode her to those bumper wins at Fairyhouse and Cheltenham and Punchestown last spring, for the Gittins family, who owned her and raced her and who were undoubtedly and justifiably looking forward to an exciting season ahead with her.

And it’s desperate for Gordon Elliott and his staff, who trained her to win her last three bumpers and her maiden hurdle.  It’s not just the loss of a potentially top class equine athlete, that potential unfulfilled that leaves a gaping hole, but there’s also the loss of a friend for the trainer and his team.  No head looking out over the half-door at you in the morning.

You have to feel for Gordon Elliott, it is the second high-profile horse that the trainer has lost this month.  Chris Jones’ horse Mega Fortune suffered a fatal fall at the second last flight on his seasonal debut at Limerick just three weeks ago.  Fayonagh was only six years old, Mega Fortune was just four.  Both horses had the potential to be top class. 

“She’s gone, but we won’t forget her,” said Gordon Elliott on At The Races. 

It would tame lions this game. 

Enable or Cracksman

It’s a moot point, but if you were to run the race tomorrow – hypothetically, of course, assuming that both horses were race fit and raring to go, ignoring the fact that Enable is on her holidays and that Cracksman ran his lungs out just a week ago – over a mile and a quarter or even a mile and a half, on good ground at, say, Ascot or Chantilly or York, where both have won, in receipt of the fillies’ allowance: Enable.

But if you were to run the race at Longchamp next October over a mile and a half on goodish ground – and you just might – under the gaze of Longchamp’s new stand, then, given his potential for progression, and even conceding the fillies’ allowance: Cracksman.

Or just wait until riding arrangements are confirmed.

© The Irish Field, 28th October 2017

Singlefarmpayment is the correct favourite for this, but he is priced up just about right in my book at 4/1 or 9/2, and Cogry is over-priced against him at 10/1.

Nigel Twiston-Davies’ horse does have his jumping frailties, but that is more than factored into his price today.  He is a high class stayer, as he proved when he won a good handicap hurdle at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day last season, and when he finished second in the Scottish National on his final run of the term, beaten just a neck by Vicente.

He has been raised just 3lb for that run to a mark of 133, which is still 4lb lower than his peak.  His jumping has held him back, he fell or unseated or was brought down on his first four runs last season, but he is talented, he goes well fresh, he stays well and he goes well at Cheltenham.

He is probably better over further than three miles these days, but this is three miles and one furlong, and it was holding ground at Cheltenham yesterday, you needed to stay to win.  Also, Sam Twiston-Davies is back on board for just the second time since February 2015, which is a positive.  His record on him over hurdles and fences reads 1181212.

I am very afraid of Singlefarmpayment, and Bells ‘N’ Banjos is also a danger but, if Cogry jumps a relatively clear round, he could out-run his odds by a fair way.

COGRY WON (ADV 10/1, SP 13/2)

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For a little while now, it has been a case of where and when – not if – Aidan O’Brien would equal the late Bobby Frankel’s world record of 25 Group/Grade 1 wins in a calendar year.  And now we know: Ascot, yesterday.

The worry with Hydrangea going into the Group 1 Qipco British Champions Fillies & Mares Stakes was that she had never before run over the distance of one and a half miles.  Aidan O’Brien’s filly had already netted a Group 1 win, when she battled on powerfully to get the better of her stable companion Winter and lead home a Ballydoyle 1-2 in the Matron Stakes at Leopardstown on Irish Champions Weekend.  But that was over a mile.

She had stayed 10 furlongs all right on her last run before yesterday, when she had finished a close-up second behind another stable companion Rhododendron in the Prix de l’Opera at Chantilly on Arc de Triomphe day.  Also, she is by Galileo, and we know that sons and daughters of Galileo have the potential to get any trip.

Hydrangea had to stay yesterday too if she was to win.  Ryan Moore asked her to pick up on the outside as they rounded the home turn in the Fillies & Mares Stakes, and she hit the front fully two furlongs from home.  She was joined by favourite and proven stayer Bateel on the run to the furlong pole, and she may even have been headed by the French filly for a stride or two, but she battled back gamely on the far side under the Moore drive, and she finished off her race strongly, putting two lengths between herself and her pursuer by the time she reached the winning line.

“It’s incredible for everybody,” said Aidan O’Brien.  “Everybody puts in so much work, day in, day out. We’re just a small link in a big chain, we’re just delighted to be a part of it.”

It was fitting that the record was equalled yesterday, on Champions Day, on the day on which Aidan O’Brien was crowned champion trainer in Britain again. 

An Irish-based trainer wins the trainers’ championship in Britain.  This is the second year in a row that Aidan O’Brien has achieved that feat, and the sixth time in total.  Before he won his first British title in 2001, no Irish-based trainer had won it since Aidan’s predecessor at Ballydoyle, the legendary Dr Vincent O’Brien, won the second of his brace of British titles in 1977. 

Aidan O’Brien has run the well of superlatives dry.  Set to be crowned champion in Ireland for the 21^st time this year, it is difficult to know where to start and where to end with his achievements: six Epsom Derbys, 12 Irish Derbys, the 1-2-3 in last year’s Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe, the 1-2-3-4 in this year’s Dewhurst Stakes.  

True, he has the raw materials with which to start now, he has the bloodlines and he has the access to the stallions – many of whom he trained as racehorses – and he has the facilities.  But one begets the other.  Just because you have access to the blocks and the equipment, it doesn’t automatically follow that you will be able to build the skyscraper.  The actual training is the art, the conditioning, the fine-tuning of the equine athlete.  The trainer makes the horse as much as the horses make the trainer.  And O’Brien over-achieved with lesser horses before he ever set foot in Ballydoyle.

It is difficult to put 25 Group 1 wins in a year into context.  Group 1 races pepper the pinnacle of racing.  They are the ultimate objectives, the gold medals of thoroughbred competition.  For most trainers, to train a Group 1 or a Grade 1 winner is a goal, and it is a goal to which most can only aspire.  Even some of the top trainers talk about a goal of training one Group 1 winner a year.  To have 25 in one year stretches the very bounds of credulity.

It started in early May with the Classics, when Churchill won the 2000 Guineas and Winter won the 1000 Guineas at Newmarket.  Then both horses came back to The Curragh and followed up in the Irish versions.  Actually, Aidan O’Brien trained eight of the 10 Classic winners in Britain and Ireland this year and, in the two Classics that he didn’t win, the Epsom Oaks and the Irish Oaks, both of which were won by wunderfilly Enable, he fielded the runners-up. 

He has sent out Winter to win four Group 1 races, Roly Poly to win three, Capri, Churchill, Happily, Highland Reel, US Navy Flag and now Hydrangea all to win two, and six other individuals to win one each.  That’s 25.  And there could be a few more before the year runs its course.  There are still Group 1 races in Australia and Britain and France and Italy and Hong Kong before you have to change the calendar, and you can be sure that there will be a strong team going from Ballydoyle to Del Mar for the Breeders’ Cup meeting in two weeks’ time.  Aidan O’Brien’s Group 1 haul for 2017 may not be complete yet.

© The Sunday Times, 22nd October 2017