21st-Jan-2012

There is a really good each-way shape to the race, the dead eight entries at this stage, and some of the bookmakers betting ¼ the odds the first three a place, and two horses at the top of the market who are under-priced in my opinion, with the sponsors going non-runner-no-bet. Therefore, I am also getting Somersby on side (as well as Gauvain). I think that he is deserving of one more chance.

He didn’t run at all badly in the King George, actually he travelled really strongly to the fourth last, I thought that he was going to be involved in the finish, but he just couldn’t go with Kauto Star when Ruby Walsh started to turn the screw after the third last.

He is still a horse who is under-achieving in my eyes, he hasn’t fulfilled his potential, and the drop back down to two miles and a furlong may not be what he wants. I thought that he stayed well enough in the King George.

However, the return to Ascot is hugely in his favour. He was only beaten a short head by an on-song Master Minded in this race last year, and he again chased that horse home in the Amlin Chase back at Ascot in November. They are the only two times that he has run over fences at Ascot, and, according to Racing Post Ratings, they are the best and joint-second-best performances of his career to date. That is probably not a coincidence.

The stiff climb all the way from the sixth last fence seems to suit him, and he won’t be getting to the front too soon over two miles, like he did in the Amlin Chase. Also, that was just the second time that Dominic Elsworth rode him over fences, he should know him a lot better now.

SOMERSBY WON (ADV 11/2, SP 9/2)