24th-Nov-2012

I am backing Quartz De Thaix for this. He isn’t a massive price, but he is the most likely winner of the race in my book, and he is over-priced for me at 4/1.

A nicely progressive second-season novice chaser two seasons ago – he was impressive in winning a good race at Newton Abbot in early March that year, and then wasn’t at all disgraced in the Byrne Group Plate at Cheltenham over a distance that was sharper than ideal – he was completely out of sorts last term. He raced four times over hurdles and fences last season, and he disappointed on all four occasions.

Some of Venetia Williams’s horse were out of form for long stretches last year, and Quartz De Thaix was one of them. The yard is flying now though, as is the horse, apparently, as evidenced by his impressive win in a three-mile handicap chase at Bangor 10 days ago.

He has been raised 9lb for that, but he had plummeted down the handicap last year because of his poor form, and his hike brings him back up to a mark of 139, which is just 2lb higher than his peak over fences, and which is 4lb below his peak over hurdles.

He goes well on soft ground, this is his trip, and Venetia Williams’s horses are in top form now. It is not ideal that Aidan Coleman goes to Ascot, but Liam Tradwell is not a bad deputy.

This is a race that has been dominated by those towards the top end of the handicap in its short history. Three of the five renewals have been won by a horse carrying 11st 11lb or 11st 12lb, and it is easy to see Quartz De Thaix going close.

QUARTZ DE THAIX WON (ADV 4/1, SP 5/1)