22nd-Mar-2014

I am backing Aldopicgros here. I thought that he would be clear favourite, and he is worth backing at 9/2.

There was an awful lot to like about Aldopicgros’ last run at Wincanton. He travelled well through the race, and he battled on bravely to get the better of Headly’s Bridge. He only got home by a head in the end, but you got the impression that he was only just doing enough, that he had more in hand than the bare winning margin.

The runner-up has come out and won twice since over fences, and is now rated 10lb higher over fences than he was before that race so, on that basis, a 6lb hike for Aldopicgros is not harsh. More than that, however, that was just his fourth run over hurdles, it was his first handicap, he was put into it on a mark of 120, and that may have been too low a starting point.

On top of that, the race was run in a really good time. It was the fastest time of the day, and it was five seconds faster than the time that Melodic Rendezvous clocked in beating Zarkandar in the Kingwell Hurdle, run over the same course and distance later in the day.

The ground was heavy that day, but Paul Nicholls’ horse has good form on good and good to soft ground as well, and the 9mm of rain that they had overnight will be a help to him. He should run a big race.

Seeyouallincoppers in an interesting runner here for Paul Flynn, and Barry Geraghty is an eye-catching booking, but a mark of 119 is harsh enough for him on his handicap debut, given that he is rated just 59 on the flat. Also, the overnight rain is not a positive. He may have gone to Newbury in search of better ground. He may well win, but I am surprised that they have put him in as favourite in front of Aldopicgros, and the Nicholls horse is the value for me.

ALDOPICGROS WON (ADV 9/2, SP 7/2)