9th-Aug-2014

I am backing Rene Mathis here. He is shorter now than he was earlier this morning with two withdrawals from the race, but I thought he would have been a 9/4 or 5/2 shot with Music Theory and Zanetto both in the race, so he is well worth backing at 11/4 or 3/1 with the pair of them out.

Rene Mathis is simply the most likely winner of this race. He ran well on several occasions last season as a three-year-old without winning, but two of his three runs this term as a four-year-old suggest that he is a significantly improved horse this term.

He was a gutsy winner of a good race over six furlongs of today’s track, when he had Hoodna, Goldream and Don’t Bother Me immediately behind him, and all those horses have added strength to the form since.

Raised 5lb for that, he was disappointing in the Buckingham Palace at Royal Ascot, but he saw lots of daylight from early that day, and you can always forgive a horse a poor run on the straight track at Ascot, especially at Royal Ascot, when he is not returning there.

His latest run, when he finished third to Muthmir, was probably the best of his life. He was drawn on the near side, stall 19 of 19, he was almost detached from the field. He came under pressure early, and he had to do a lot of his own running out in the clear to get close to the leaders, which he duly did. He finished off best of all to go down by a total of around two lengths.

Muthmir is really highly-regarded, he ran really well for a long way off a 6lb higher mark in the Stewards’ Cup last Saturday, and Rene Mathis gets to compete off the same mark today. The step up to seven furlongs should be in his favour, the soft ground holds no fears – he ran really well on soft ground at Chester twice last year – and he is proven at the track. With Almargo in the line-up, he should get a fast pace at which to run, and he should go close.

RENE MATHIS WON (ADV 3/1 [R4], SP 7/4)