21st-Aug-2015

This is a really competitive race, but I thought that Memorial Day would be shorter than he is, and I am backing him at 8/1.

The Godolphin horse is taking on some hardened handicappers who are proven on the ground and at the track, but he is a talented individual himself who still has bags of scope for progression, unlike most of his rivals.

He ran a good second to the talented Rifle Range – who won his only race since and who is high in the betting for the last race today – on his debut this season in a one-mile maiden at Haydock, and he stepped forward from that to win his maiden back over the same course and distance a month later.

He stepped forward again from that, however, when he stepped up in trip to 10 furlongs and won a handicap at Newmarket three weeks ago off a mark of 83.  He picked up nicely that day at the two-furlong pole, and he kept on well when he was challenged by Raw Impulse, leaving the impression that he had more left to give.

The handicapper raised him 6lb for that to a mark of 89, but that is more than fair.  He could have got more than that.  He raced that day as though he could have found more if he had needed to and, given that it was only his fourth ever race, he still has lots of scope to progress further for the experience.

Also, he is stepping up in trip again today, from 10 furlongs to 12, and that could bring about even further improvement.  His dam, by Kingmambo, is a half-sister to Anabaa Blue who won the French Derby when it was run over a mile and a half, and she is from Urban Sea’s family.

He has never run at York, and he has never raced on easy ground, but it shouldn’t be too soft today, it was just on the slow side of good yesterday according to race times, and they had just 2mm of rain overnight.  It should be just on the easy side of good again today, and that isn’t much slower than it was when he put up his career-best at Newmarket last time.

Top Tug is a horse I like, and he does need cut in the ground, but everyone has cottoned on to his unlucky run at Goodwood last time, and he has been priced up accordingly.  He may well win, but he is shorter than he should be in my book at 6/1.

Curbyourenthusiasm and Chancery were also on my shortlist, but they are both priced up just about right.  Libran was tempting at 12/1, but it is a really competitive race, and I think we have the value in it with 8/1 about Memorial Day.  He is an each-way bet, especially with three of the main firms betting to five places.

MEMORIAL DAY DEAD-HEATED FOR FIRST PLACE (ADV 8/1 [R4], SP 7/1)