28th-Oct-2017

Singlefarmpayment is the correct favourite for this, but he is priced up just about right in my book at 4/1 or 9/2, and Cogry is over-priced against him at 10/1.

Nigel Twiston-Davies’ horse does have his jumping frailties, but that is more than factored into his price today.  He is a high class stayer, as he proved when he won a good handicap hurdle at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day last season, and when he finished second in the Scottish National on his final run of the term, beaten just a neck by Vicente.

He has been raised just 3lb for that run to a mark of 133, which is still 4lb lower than his peak.  His jumping has held him back, he fell or unseated or was brought down on his first four runs last season, but he is talented, he goes well fresh, he stays well and he goes well at Cheltenham.

He is probably better over further than three miles these days, but this is three miles and one furlong, and it was holding ground at Cheltenham yesterday, you needed to stay to win.  Also, Sam Twiston-Davies is back on board for just the second time since February 2015, which is a positive.  His record on him over hurdles and fences reads 1181212.

I am very afraid of Singlefarmpayment, and Bells ‘N’ Banjos is also a danger but, if Cogry jumps a relatively clear round, he could out-run his odds by a fair way.

COGRY WON (ADV 10/1, SP 13/2)