29th-Dec-2009

This is a cracking contest, with Finian’s Rainbow and Manyriverstocross the two with the potential, the two exciting, fashionable horses, but they still have a long to way to go to match Reve De Sivola’s form, and he is over-priced for me (at 100/30).

I do like Finian’s Rainbow. He would have won his only point-to-point had he not fallen at the last, he did win his only bumper, and he looked very good in beating the useful Sereth on his only start to date over hurdles. That was over two miles at today’s track, and he stayed on really well. However, he has to go another half a mile today, and he has to step up significantly on that performance if he is to beat an on-song Reve De Sivola. He may well do it, but he is too short for me.

Manyriverstocross seemed to appreciate the step up to two and a half miles at Sandown last time, but they didn’t go a great gallop in that race, and a slightly longer trip at Newbury on soft ground is a whole different ball game. He is by Cape Cross, and his stamina should be tested to the maximum here.

Reve De Sivola’s form stands up to the closest scrutiny. He has only won once, but he gave Walkon a scare in the Finesse Hurdle at Cheltenham last January, and he wasn’t beaten that far in the Triumph Hurdle, probably one of the hottest Triumph Hurdles run in years. All season long last term he was crying out for a step up in trip, and he duly won on his seasonal debut on his first attempt at two and a half miles, staying on well to catch and pass Frascati Park. He was beaten on his latest start, in the Hyde Novices’ Hurdle at Cheltenham last month, but he didn’t seem to run his race there, he made a mistake at nearly every flight of hurdles, and that race is working out really well, it looks like a much hotter race now than it looked at the time, with the winner, the fourth and the fifth all winning again since.

Reve De Sivola has only ever run at Cheltenham or Chepstow, but you have to think that Newbury’s galloping nature will suit him well, and the soft ground today will place an emphasis on stamina, which he has in abundance. As a second season novice, he has a huge advantage over his rivals in terms of experience and, although Nick Williams says that he has been affected by the freeze, that he wanted to get more work into his horses than he has been able to, he did win the big Grade 1 juvenile hurdle at Chepstow yesterday with Me Voici. Reve De Sivola should be favourite in my book and he is worth backing at 3/1.

REVE DE SIVOLA WON (ADV 100/30, SP 15/8)