3rd-Aug-2012

This is one of the biggest ‘draw’ races on the calendar. Just one horse in the last 10 years has won the race from a stall higher than seven, just two from a stall higher than five, and of the 20 horses who filled the first two places in the last 10 years, only two emerged from a stall higher than seven.

Albaqaa was the horse that I originally wanted to back in the race, and I was very happy when he drew stall five, but he is ridiculously short now and I am leaving him alone. He ran a really eye-catching race at Sandown last time, but he apparently caught plenty of eyes. He is proven at Goodwood, but he is 6lb higher now than he was when he won the apprentices’ race at this meeting last year, he is a seven-year-old who shouldn’t really be getting any better, and he is far too short in my book at no better than 10/1 …

Fulbright has been put up by Pricewise, which always makes things difficult, but he is the most likely winner of the race in my book and he is still worth backing at 8/1. He is an improving three-year-old who is in the form of his life. His two recent wins at Newmarket have resulted in a new handicap mark of 108 for him, yet he gets to compete today off a mark of 102, so he is 6lb well-in. He is trained by Mark Johnston, whose horses are in terrific form this week, he races handily, a style that suits this race, and he is just about well enough drawn in stall eight.

The main worry about him concerns his stamina for a mile. He travelled well but didn’t appear to get home in that Sandown handicap won by Trade Commissioner (in which Albaqaa ran as well) that just seems to get better and better as time goes on. However, the ground was easy that day. It will be better today. Also, Sandown’s extended mile is much stiffer than Goodwood’s. The standard time at Sandown is four seconds slower than the standard time at Goodwood, which is significant. Also, the fact that they have to go around a tight turn at Goodwood makes it easier still. He should stay all right and, if he does, he has a massive chance of winning.

FULBRIGHT WON (ADV 8/1, SP 7/1)