26th-Dec-2013

I like Twelve Roses as a horse, I think he is probably still quite well handicapped, but he is opposable here at a general 3/1 in an open race.

In contrast, I think that 13/2 or 6/1 about Junction Fourteen is a fair bit too big and I am backing him at that. The Emma Lavelle-trained four-year-old has shaped really nicely on both of his two runs over hurdles to date, and he has lots of scope to improve on this, his handicap hurdle debut.

He ran a race full of promise on his hurdling debut, travelling just about best of all but probably in need of the experience. On his next run (at Fontwell), the manner in which he knuckled down to get up on the line was really likeable. He had travelled well again but hadn’t handled the turn out of the back straight too well, which put him on the back foot. On that evidence he could be a better horse going right-handed, which he is today, and he should have come on again, possibly quite considerably, for that latest experience, just the third run of his life.

It is probably quite significant that Lavelle is pitching him straight into a hot open handicap rather than allowing him run in a novice handicap, she could easily have found a smaller race for him, and he could prove significantly better than a 121-rated horse. Odds of around 6/1 are big. He is a lot shorter in my book.

JUNCTION FOURTEEN WON (ADV 13/2, SP 9/2)