25th-Oct-2014

Two-year-old listed races on soft ground at the end of the season are not often my thing, but I think that Code Red represents a good betting opportunity today.

William Muir’s colt ran to just a fairly modest level on his first two runs, but he looked a different proposition on his most recent run at Nottingham. Crucially, although the official going for that win was good, there had been lots of rain before racing and, in fact, the ground was probably a fair bit softer than that. Timeform actually described it as soft.

He bowled along in front that day, he clearly handled the rain-softened ground really well and, although he was challenged from two furlongs out and strongly pressed passing the furlong pole, he powered away to win by four and a half lengths in the style of a powerful galloper on this sort of ground. The form of that race took a fairly significant boost yesterday when the third and fourth horses, both beaten over 10 lengths by Code Red, came out and won their maidens at Newbury and Doncaster respectively.

Presumably he will be ridden prominently again today, he may not have to go too fast to lead, and he should be suited by the galloping track. Racing from the front on soft ground can often be an advantage at Doncaster.

This may not be the strongest of listed races with the highest-rated horse rated 100 and, although the Bahamian Bounty colt only has an official mark of 85, he may well be capable of taking the requisite step up in grade in these conditions.

CODE RED WON (ADV 6/1, SP 11/2)