28th-Jun-2020

We are ahead of the market with our bet on Caravan Of Hope in the Northumberland Plate.

Hugo Palmer’s horse was a progressive three-year-old at the end of last season.  It took him a little while to get going, but he won a novices’ stakes at Ascot in early October, and he stepped up on that next time later that month when he won a handicap at Doncaster over a mile and six furlongs on heavy ground off a mark of 80.

It appears that he has continued his progression this season.  He ran really well on his debut this term at Wolverhampton three weeks ago.  He was keener than ideal early on, and he was wider that ideal, but he still looked the most likely winner when he swept around the outside leaving the back straight.  His main rival Australis got a nice gap up the inside around the home turn, however, and Caravan Of Hope just couldn’t claw him back up the home straight, with the pair of them pulling clear.

He should be better with that run under his belt, he shouldn’t be as fresh today.  Also, that was his first run since being gelded, so he should improve for that.

Australis is a danger again today, but he meets him on 1lb better terms and he should get closer to him anyway with a better run through the race.  The handicapper raised him by 4lb to a mark of 89, but he should be better than that mark this season.

He has never run at Newcastle, but his two runs on Tapeta have been good, his latest was a career-best, and there is every chance that he will step forward again.  And while many will think that his high draw is a negative, the stats say that, over two miles at Newcastle on Tapeta, it is actually a positive.

CARAVAN OF HOPE WON (ADV 8/1, SP 9/2)