Donn’s Bets

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Strategy

Donn’s betting strategy is simple – he bets when he thinks that a horse is a bigger price than it should be. Most punters make the mistake of trying to back winners without considering the odds. They try to back the most likely winner of a race rather than the horse who is most over-priced. Just because Tails has come up in the toss of a fair coin, it doesn’t mean that it was a value bet at 4/6. If you back Tails at 4/6 every time a coin is tossed, in the long run you will lose. By contrast, if you can back Tails at 6/4 every time a coin is tossed then, in the long run, you will make a profit. That’s the key. It’s all about the odds.

Deck of cards

Take a fair deck of 52 cards. If you draw a card from that deck, there is one chance in two that it will be a red card (true odds of evens or 1/1), and one chance in four that it will be a club (odds of 3/1). Of the two possible outcomes, of course the more likely outcome is that a red card will be drawn. However, if you are offered odds of 4/5 about that outcome occurring, about a red card being drawn, that is not a bet that you should have. The odds offered are lower than the true odds for the event occurring, and the bet consequently offers poor value. Conversely, if you are offered 7/2 about drawing a club, that is a bet that you should have, as the offered odds are greater than the true odds. While on average you will only win once out of every four draws, in the long run, because you are betting at 7/2, you will make a profit. It is on this simple principle that Donn’s entire betting strategy is predicated.

So where’s the edge?

Unlike the draw of a card, the true probability of any horse winning any race is neither known nor measurable. Consequently, nobody knows what the true odds are. The odds on offer are governed by the laws of supply and demand, a function of bookmaker and bettor opinion. Therefore, the edge in betting usually lies in going against the crowd, an idea that Alan Potts encapsulated in his 1995 book of that title. If you can take a view that is contrary to that of the majority, and if your opinion is well informed and accurate then, in the long run, you should make a profit.

Form

Crucial to this strategy is the accuracy of the assessment of a horse’s chance of winning a race. Donn bets on form, not on information. Almost all of his bets are on mature morning prices or ante post markets on the higher class races, in which form and potential can be assessed and evaluated. This strategy has been refined over the course of the last 30 years, and has proved to be profitable every year since Donn’s recommended bets were first published.

Analysis

When you sign up to receive Donn’s Bets, you will be one of a select group of clients who will be given access via the password protected Private Clients page on this site to Donn’s race analyses, the horses that he thinks are over-priced and the rationale behind his opinions, as follows:

  1. After 10.15am every Saturday detailing all of his thoughts on the day’s racing, together with recommended bets and stakes
  2. After 10.15am on every other day that there is racing on terrestrial television, together with recommended bets and stakes
  3. After 3.00pm on Fridays for the big weekend race(s), together with recommended bets and stakes
  4. Sporadically when Donn thinks that there is an ante post bet worth having

 

Net profit/loss from Donn’s recommended bets (at €100 per point):

Total 2009 to 2020 Net profit of €98,101
2020 Net loss of €8,931
2019 Net profit of €9,887
2018 Net profit of €1,902
2017 Net profit of €8,626
2016 Net profit of €33,078
2015 Net profit of €12,620
2014 Net profit of €630
2013 Net profit of €15,493
2012 Net profit of €1,365
2011 Net profit of €6,270
2010 Net profit of €16,732
2009 Net profit of €429

 

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If you wish to sign up, as long as there is a place available, you can just click one of the Buy Now buttons above and you will be taken to a secure PayPal page where you can pay by credit card or by your preferred method. You will then receive an introductory email which will go through the finer details of the service, and which will inform you of any ante post bets that are currently live. You will receive your first password as soon as your first recommended bet has been posted on the web site. All passwords are sent out by text message, so be sure to include your mobile number with your payment details.

Betting on horses, by its nature, is a risky business. This is not a sure-fire route to untold riches, but by signing up to receive Donn’s Bets, you will benefit from the knowledge that Donn has gained in over 30 years of betting on horses.

 

Please remember:

  • Betting should always be fun
  • Bet responsibly and within your means
  • Stay in control

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Our winners:

Run Wild Fred (Adv 11/2, SP 4/1), Dans Le Vent (Adv 14/1, SP 16/1), Midnight Shadow (Adv 9/1, SP 9/1), Art Approval (Adv 9/2, SP 100/30), Indefatigable (Adv 6/1, SP 5/1), Soaring Glory (Adv 5/1, SP 5/1), Aldaary (Adv 6/1, SP 7/2), Saffron Beach (Adv 7/1, SP 5/1), Vadream (Adv 12/1 [R4], SP 6/1), Hukum (Adv 3/1, SP 85/40), Royal Patronage (Adv 100/30, SP 7/2), Forbearance (Adv 5/1, SP 4/1), Bielsa (Adv 10/1, SP 15/2), Sonnyboyliston (Adv 5/1, SP 4/1), Maydanny (Adv 10/1, SP 8/1), Qaader (Adv 10/1, SP 8/1), Mosala (Adv 8/1 [R4], SP 8/1 [R4]), Tashkhan (Adv 11/2 [R4], SP 16/5), Hurricane Lane (Adv 13/2, SP 4/1), Oisin Murphy Leading Rider at Royal Ascot (Adv 10/1), Surefire (Adv 11/2, SP 5/1), Oxted (Adv 9/1, SP 4/1), Primo Bacio (SP 14/1), Hurricane Lane (Adv 13/2, SP 5/1), Starman (Adv 5/1, SP 5/1), Paws For Thought (Adv 13/2, SP 5/1), Lady Bowethorpe (Adv 11/2, SP 6/1), Colreevy (Adv 9/1, SP 7/1), Greaneteen (Adv 8/1, SP 13/2), Nugget (Adv 8/1, SP 4/1), Summerghand (Adv 13/2, SP 6/1), Ranch Hand (Adv 7/2, SP 7/2), Good Ball (Adv 11/4 [R4], SP 2/1), Saint Dalina (Adv 13/2, SP 4/1), Minella Indo (Adv 10/1, SP 9/1), Quilixios (Adv 5/1, SP 2/1), Mount Ida (Adv 6/1, SP 3/1), Put The Kettle On (Adv 16/1, SP 17/2)…

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