The Irish challenge at the Cheltenham Festival can be traced back to the 1940s and 1950s. It started with Vincent O’Brien, who sent Cottage Rake over on the boat in 1948, from Limerick City Station to the North Wall, the horse and Vincent’s brother Phonsie. Then across to Liverpool on the ferry, a lone horse among the cattle and the stevedores, a tarpaulin as a make-shift stable, and onto Cheltenham. Cottage Rake won the Gold Cup in 1948.

He won it again in 1949 when, that time, he flew over with Hatton’s Grace and Castledermot. Hatton’s Grace won the Champion Hurdle that year and Castledermot won the National Hunt Chase. Cottage Rake won a third Gold Cup in 1950, and Hatton’s Grace won a second and then a third Champion Hurdle, and the British/Irish competition at Cheltenham became a thing.

Five or six or even seven Irish-trained winners at the Cheltenham Festival was not unusual in the late 1970s, but the flow of Irish winners dwindled to a trickle in the late 1980s and it stopped entirely in 1989. Difficult to envision it now but, when the evergreen Galmoy – the lone Irish-trained winner in 1987 and again in 1988 – came up just short in the Stayers’ Hurdle in 1989, there was no Irish-trained winner at Cheltenham.

In 2013, for the first time ever, and uncountenanceable a decade earlier, there were more Irish-trained winners than British-trained winners at the Cheltenham Festival. Same again in 2016, and at every Cheltenham Festival since then.

There is an argument that it doesn't matter. That, with National Hunt racing confined to this small corner of the planet, National Hunt racing fans appreciate a high-class horse regardless of where he or she is trained. That, for punters, a 5/1 winner trained in Britain pays the same as a 5/1 winner trained in Ireland. Also true.

And the demarcation lines can be blurred anyway. If a winner is bred in France, trained in Britain by an Irishman, owned by an Irishman and ridden by an Irish-born jockey who is based in Britain, what flag do you pin on that winner?

But it matters all right. They keep score. The Prestbuy Cup, they call it. An Irish-trained winner will get a more heart-felt cheer from an Irish racing fan. It makes sense that it does. Sporting success abroad is always to be celebrated.

There is a notion that is gaining traction that British-trained horses may well be stronger as a collective this year than has been the case in the recent past. Dan Skelton is having a phenomenal season. His horses earned over £800,000 in prize money in January, almost £500,000 more than they earned in January last year, which took him through the £3 million barrier for the season, more than twice what his closest rival in the trainers’ championship has earned, and probably out of reach even of Willie Mullins.

Ben Pauling has won the King George and the Becher Chase and he has already had more winners and earned more prize money this season than he did in the entire of last season. Olly Murphy is having another great season, Jamie Snowden likewise, the Tizzards and the Twiston-Davies are kicking in plenty of winners. And then, of course, there is Nicky Henderson and there is Paul Nicholls. All are assembling strong teams for Cheltenham.

As well as that, goes the argument, the Irish Cheltenham bankers are thin on the ground. There is no Willie Mullins standout in any of the novice hurdles or any of the novice chases. There is a more open feeling to the Cheltenham Festival this year than there has been for many a year. There are 28 races at the Cheltenham Festival and, at the time of writing, there is no horse that you can’t back at odds-against.

That said, there is a depth to the Irish challenge this year that may be hiding in plain sight. Willie Mullins will, of course, be very strong again. Ten winners last year took his career-tally at the Cheltenham Festival to 113. Gordon Elliott will be strong. He had to wait until the last race on the last day last year to bag his winner, Wodhooh, but his horses ran well all week. He had four seconds and six thirds. And there is depth to the strength of the Elliott Cheltenham team this year. There is a real sense that it runs much deeper than last year.

Henry de Bromhead will be strong, Gavin Cromwell will be strong, and other Irish trainers will go with real chances: Joseph O’Brien, Paul Nolan, Emmet Mullins, Noel Meade, Barry Connell. And others will go with smaller teams but still with chances.

Moving from the qualitative to the vaguely quantitative, you can take the current ante post markets as a rough guide to expectations, notwithstanding the fact that, inevitably, there will be setbacks in the next nine days. Some horses will be ruled out and, even now, many horses’ targets have not been fully nailed down.

It’s just over 11/4 at present, for example, that Lulamba runs in and wins the Arkle Trophy on the first day of the Festival in nine days’ time. That equates to a probability of just over 0.34 that he will win the race, as things stand at present. Kopek Des Bordes’ current ante post price for the race is just over 9/4, which equates to a probability of just under 0.30. Add the other main potential Irish-trained Arkle contenders Kargese and Romeo Coolio (still a possible runner in the race) and Irish Panther and Kappa Jy Pyke (also a possible), and the other main British contenders Steel Ally and Jax Junior, and you arrive at a probability of around 0.56 that the race will be won by an Irish-trained horse, and a probability of 0.44 that it will be won by a British-trained horse. Do that for all 28 races, and you come up with a general picture of how the week might pan out.

British trainers as a collective look stronger on the first day. British-trained horses are really strong in the Ultima Handicap Chase and in the Plate, and they are just shading it, according to the markets, in the Champion Hurdle and the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle, while Irish-trained horses as a collective are stronger in the Arkle, the Fred Winter Hurdle and the National Hunt Chase. At the end of Day One, it could be 4-3 for the British-trained horses.

The Irish are stronger on each of the next three days, however, according to the markets. The Irish could out-score the British 5-2 on the Wednesday, 4-3 or 5-2 on the Thursday and 4-3 or 5-2 on the Friday.

At last year’s Cheltenham Festival, there were 20 Irish-trained winners and eight British trained winners. If it pans out as above, as the markets suggest it might, that would make it 17 Irish-trained winners this year, and 11 British-trained winners. The competition continues.

© The Sunday Times, 1st March 2026