07-06-2009

Silver Frost, the (French) Guineas winner, is short enough at 7/2. I think that he is vulnerable over 10 and a half furlongs. He is by Verglas, a sprinter, out of a mare by Anabaa, another sprinter, and he showed real speed in landing the Guineas. Furthermore, he got the run of the race. He sat nicely in rear, moved to the outside at the top of the home straight, and delivered an uninterrupted run down the near side. They were talking about running him in the St James’s Palace Stakes over a mile after he won the French Guineas, and connections are obviously not too sure either about him getting the extra two and a half furlongs.
By contrast, Le Havre was busy weaving and ducking his way through horses on the far side in the Guineas as Silver Frost was quickening on the outside, and I thought he ran a cracker to run on to take second place, closing on the winner all the way to the line. Le Havre shaped like more of a stayer that day, and he is by Noverre, a mile to 10-furlong horse, from a German family. There is every chance that he will improve for stepping up in distance. He is well drawn (as is Silver Frost, admittedly) and it is significant that Jean-Claude Rouget is happy to have another go at the Guineas winner. They have put him in at 12/1, and that is too big.

LE HAVRE WON (ADV 12/1)