23rd-Jul-2011

It might be a bit much to expect that a three-year-old can beat three of the top middle-distance older horses in training, but I think that Nathaniel has a chance, better than odds of 15/2 suggest.

A good juvenile, who ran Frankel to a half a length on his racecourse debut, he has improved dramatically with every race this season to date. He didn’t really handle the track nor have the race run to suit when he got beaten a head by Treasure Beach in the Chester Vase in May, and that rival proved how good a run that was by finishing second in the Epsom Derby and by winning the Irish Derby.

Nathaniel skipped the Derbies, going instead to Royal Ascot for the King Edward VII Stakes, and he was most impressive in winning that, coming clear inside the final furlong to beat the potentially classy Fiorente by five lengths. Of course he has to improve again if he is to win today, but there is no telling how good he could be, he is proven at the track, and the fact that John Gosden wants to run him in this, and that Lady Rothschild has come up with £75,000 to supplement him, speaks volumes. The 4mm of rain that they had overnight should have put enough of an ease into the ground to give him a chance of upsetting the big three.

NATHANIEL WON (ADV 15/2, SP 11/2)