24th-Sept-2011

Lexington Bay is over-priced for me here at 10/1. Richard Fahey’s gelding has been nicely progressive this season when stepped up to staying trips. He won a 12-furlong handicap at Musselburgh in June, when he beat Motivado by three parts of a length, a horse whom he meets on 5lb better terms today, and that is even without taking his apprentice’s claim into account, yet he is almost twice that one’s price.

Motivado was possibly a little unlucky that day, he was caught a little flat-footed when the pace increased before staying on, and he did exact his revenge on Lexington Bay at Haydock earlier this month. However, that was Lexington Bay’s first run in 80 days, and he proved that he benefited from that when he won well at Ayr last Saturday.

The manner in which he ground it out that day was impressive, he relished the ground and the further he went, the stronger he seemed to get. They didn’t go a great gallop either, so it probably wasn’t in his favour that he had to come from the rear.

Unlike at Newmarket today, the ground at Haydock is good to soft, soft in places, and that will be ideal. He is a strong stayer who should be even better suited by a stronger pace than the pace they went at Ayr. He has had his problems, but his trainer thinks that they are sorted now, and he can progress again from his last win. The handicapper raised him just 3lb, and that is lenient.

Ardlui is a worthy favourite, he ran well in the Melrose at York when he was wide for most of the way, and the handicapper has left him on his mark of 87 for that, he will appreciate the easier ground, and he has plenty of scope for progression also, but his price is just about right. Lyric Street is another with scope for progression, but he does have to bounce back from a fairly disappointing run in the Melrose, and the bookmakers haven’t missed him either.

LEXINGTON BAY WON (SP 12/1)