21st-Mar-2015

I am a little concerned about Rebel Rebellion on good ground over two and a half miles, that combination is probably on the easy side for a horse who put up the best performance of his career over two miles and five and a half furlongs on soft ground at Ascot on his penultimate run. However, his form is so strong that there is a good chance he will still be able to go close, even under conditions that are not optimal.

That race that he won at Ascot in January was a really strong race. Runner-up Fox Appeal was travelling well in the BetBright Chase on his next run when he fell, and the pair of them came clear of Eastlake, who finished second in the Grand Annual at Cheltenham.

On his latest run, off a mark of 148, 7lb higher than his Ascot mark, he finished second to Soll, who won a good race at Newbury next time off a 9lb higher mark, and the pair of them were clear of Grove Pride, who won at Taunton on the Monday before Cheltenham.

The handicapper raised Rebel Rebellion just 1lb for that run, and that is very fair. It looked like he had Soll’s measure until the approach to the final fence, and Soll is now rated 16lb higher than he was then. Also, that run suggested that a trip short of three miles is his optimum.

The ground should be fine for him. He won a novice hurdle at Sandown in 2011 on good ground, and he has run well on good to soft ground many times since. Also, the return to Newbury is a positive, it is a big galloping track that suits him well, and he finished second in the Greatwood Gold Cup last year over today’s course and distance on his latest visit to the track. Jack Sherwood gets on well with him, and takes off a useful 5lb. He is weak in the market this morning, presumably because of the good ground, and 7/1 or 13/2 about him is very fair.

REBEL REBELLION WON (SP 7/1)