5th-Sept-2015

It is a little disappointing that Ivawood has been taken out of this.  I thought that Balty Boys was a fair bit over-priced at 5/1 with Ivawood in the race, I thought that Ivawood was a favourite to take on, and that Balty Boys was a decent bet at 5/1.  That said, with Ivawood and Let’s Go out of the race now, Balty Boys is still worth backing at 3/1.

We lost our ante post stake on Brian Ellison’s horse when he failed to show up for the Celebration Mile at Goodwood last Saturday, but it could all work out for the best because he has a big chance of winning this.

As outlined last week, he is an under-rated horse in my book.  He ran a huge race to finish fourth in the Royal Hunt Cup at Royal Ascot, coming clear of all his rivals on the near side.  If he had been drawn on the far side, he might well have won.

He was disappointing at York next time, but he had run poorly on his two previous runs at York, where course form is paramount, so you can easily forgive him that.  On his latest run, in the International Handicap at Ascot on King George day, he finished best of all from an improbable position to run Heaven’s Guest to a head.

That was over seven furlongs.  He really needs a mile these days to be seen at his best, he has won over nine furlongs, so the step back up to a mile today is a significant positive.  He is in the form of his life, and he has the red-hot Silvestre de Sousa on board for just the second time, and the first time since he rode him in the Hunt Cup.

There are question marks about just about all of Balty Boys’ main rivals.

Master Carpenter is an admirable performer, but he might lack the class for this, and he is dropping down in trip from 10 furlongs.  Hors De Combat often shapes like a classy horse, but he hasn’t won since Guineas weekend in May 2014.

Let’s Go was a danger, he has lots of potential for progression, he is a nice horse, but he had to bounce back from his defeat in a listed race at Pontefract in July and, by Street Cry, easy ground probably isn’t his thing, so it was no surprise to see him taken out.

Sovereign Debt is a danger, but I think that Balty Boys is a better horse and, at just a slightly shorter price, he is the bet.

BALTY BOYS WON (ADV 3/1, SP 11/4)