Gavin Cromwell

Gavin Cromwell

14th-Mar-2025

(Message of 8th March 2025)

Leading Trainer at the 2025 Cheltenham Festival ‘without Willie Mullins’

Finally for now, I have been doing some work on the Top Trainer market, using trainers’ probable runners and their runners’ current odds and implied expected value as a guide, with some tweaking, together with best-guesses as to what races horses will run in.

Of course, Willie Mullins is head and shoulders above everyone, it is difficult to imagine a situation in which the perennial leading trainer will not be crowned Leading Trainer again.  But the ‘without Willie Mullins’ market is interesting, and I think that Gavin Cromwell and Joseph O’Brien are both generally over-priced in that market.

It is correct that Gordon Elliott and Nicky Henderson are next in after Willie Mullins in my view, but Gordon Elliott should be ahead of Nicky Henderson, and he wasn’t when these markets first opened.   But the markets were not robust enough then for a bet.  They are more robust now, with more firms betting on them, and the figures say that Gavin Cromwell and Joseph O’Brien should be closer to Gordon Elliot and Nicky Henderson in the market than they are.  

GAVIN CROMWELL WON (ADV 5/1)