Carmers

I am backing Carmers in the Queen’s Vase.  I think that he should be favourite.

Paddy Twomey’s horse was weak in the market before he made his racecourse debut at Ballinrobe in early May in a one-mile-five-furlong maiden, so he obviously surprised a few people when he stayed on as well as he did to win nicely.

He showed the benefit of that run next time when, stepped up into listed company, he again stayed on strongly to win the Yeats Stakes at Navan over the same distance.  They didn’t go a great pace in that race, which wouldn’t have been ideal, but Billy Lee was obviously keen to utilise his stamina, he sent him on fully two furlongs from home and he stayed on well up the hill to come away from his rivals, leaving the impression that he had a fair bit more in hand than the two-length winning margin.

Back in third that day was Delta, who won his maiden at Fairyhouse last week, and back in fifth was Bonnie Moon, who won her maiden in France next time.

Carmers should improve again for that run, just his second, and he should do better now stepped up in grade, into a better race in which the early pace should be stronger and in which he may not have to be sent on so far out.  He is a superbly well-bred horse, out of a half-sister to Lord Shanakill and Together Forever and Forever Together, all Group 1 winners.  This race has been his target since the Yeats Stakes, and we know how good Paddy Twomey is when he targets a high-profile race.

French raider Asmarani will be a big player if he handles the fast ground, and the Aidan O’Brien horses obviously have to be respected in this race, but I think that Rahiebb could emerge as the biggest danger.  He is stepping up in grade, but he kept on well to take second place last time at York behind an exciting horse in Merchant, who is high in the betting for the King George V Stakes tomorrow, in a race that is working out well.  That said, even at a slightly shorter price, I prefer Carmers.

CARMERS WON (ADV 4/1, SP 9/2)