Horses To Follow » Oldjoesaid


Oldjoesaid was the one to take out of the Investec Dash for me. Drawn worst of all, furthest of the 18 runners from the stands rail, he broke smartly but was never able to get close to the near rail at all, as he was kept out in the middle of the track by Group Therapy, who went just as fast through the early stages. Even so, Oldjoesaid looked a likely winner at the furlong pole, but just couldn’t match Indian Trail’s finishing surge through horses on the near side, and he faded through the final 100 yards to finish fourth, which was understandable given how much running he had to do just to get into the firing line from his draw.

To put the magnitude of the disadvantage of his draw into context, the first three home in Saturday’s race were drawn 18, 12 and 11 respectively, and nine of the first 11 places were filled by horses who were drawn in nine of the 10 stalls that were closest the near rail. Furthermore, nine of the last 12 renewals of the race were won by horses drawn no lower than 10. You really do have to be close to the stands rail in Epsom’s five-furlong dashes, and Oldjoesaid couldn’t have been further from it.

His current mark of 99 is 3lb lower than the mark of which he won at Newbury last April, and it is 8lb lower than the mark to which he was raised after that run. The balance of his form suggests that he is at his best on easy ground over five furlongs. He is entered in the Wokingham, but the ground may be too fast for him at Ascot and the distance of that contest may be too far. He is well handicapped now for when he does get his conditions, possibly later in the season. He could be a player in the Listed City Wall Stakes at Chester in July if the ground came up easy. He was well beaten in the race last year, but that was from another awful draw – stall 10 of 10 over five furlongs at Chester is just as bad as stall one of 18 over five furlongs at Epsom. He is due a change of luck.

6th June 2009