18th-Jul-2015

I think that Sealife is too short here.  She won well on her debut at Windsor 12 days ago, and she is well-bred, she was an expensive yearling.  She obviously has lots of scope to progress, but a handicap rating of 83 is no better than fair for her handicap debut, and she has been put in very short.

The filly who is most over-priced against her in my book is Forest Maiden.  The Godolphin filly ran well at Newmarket last time in finishing third behind Angel Vision and Spirit Raiser.  She led from early that day, but she was just a little keener than ideal, and she hung to her right consistently through the final two furlongs, leaving a gap on the far rail for Angel Vision to exploit.

She had led when she won at Thirsk on her previous run, but that was in a three-runner race off a mark of 84.  She could do better now if she can get a lead.  If she settles better in behind today than she did at Newmarket, she should do better, she should reverse placings with Spirit Raiser too.

She has raced just six times in her life – she has won three times – and she still has lots of scope for progression.  A mile on fast ground suits her well, Charlie Appleby’s horses are in good form, and William Buick takes the ride for the first time today, which is another positive.

FOREST MAIDEN WON (ADV 11/1, SP 8/1)