21st-Aug-2015

I am taking a chance with Max Dynamite here at 10/1.  I think that there is enough in those odds to justify backing him.

Willie Mullins’ horse ran in Group races on the flat in France, and he was just below the top staying novice hurdlers last season.  It was an astute call by the trainer to run him in the Northumberland Plate in June, and it almost paid handsome dividend, as he came from the rear after a troubled passage to take second place behind Quest For More.

Since then, he has run a cracker to finish second in the Galway Hurdle.

Of course, this is a step up in grade, from a staying handicap and a big handicap hurdle to the Group 2 Lonsdale Cup, but Mullins doesn’t do these things lightly.  Remember that he nearly won the Ascot Gold Cup a couple of years ago with the handicapper Simenon.

Also, it is not that big a step up for Max Dynamite.  His new mark of 107 leaves him with just 9lb to find with the top rated horse in the race.  As well as that, that run in the Northumberland Plate was his first run on the flat for Mullins, his first run on the flat over a distance in excess of a mile and a half.  Now that we know he stays two miles on the flat well, he has ample scope for progression as a stayer on the flat.

Mullins also has Simenon in the race, and Simenon is no back number, but the fact that Frankie Dettori rides Max Dynamite suggests that he is the stable’s selected.

It is a competitive Lonsdale Cup but, now that Tac De Boistron has been taken out, it may lack class in-depth.  Clever Cookie is the biggest danger in my book, but Max Dynamite is the over-priced horse in the race.

MAX DYNAMITE WON (ADV 10/1, SP 8/1)