28th-Mar-2016

There is an angle to this race in my book, as the drying ground will not suit the favourite Dedigout.

I am backing Value At Risk against him.  Dan Skelton’s horse was a really progressive novice hurdler last season before he disappointed in tough conditions in the Albert Bartlett Hurdle at Cheltenham.  A lot of horses disappointed in that race in the attritional conditions.

His chasing career this season had to be curtailed, it just didn’t go to plan as he fell at the second fence in each of his two attempts.  Switched back to hurdles, it has taken him a little while to get his eye back in.

He was well beaten at Ascot in January on his return to the smaller obstacles, but he shaped a lot better last time behind Baoulet Delaroque at Huntingdon.  That horse added ballast to the form by running a big race in the Coral Cup at the Cheltenham Festival off a 9lb higher mark, finishing just over two lengths behind the winner Diamond King in fifth place.

Value At Risk has a little to find on official ratings with the top-rated horses here, but he receives 5lb from Dedigout and 3lb from Taglietelle, which is a help.  More than that, however, he has raced just five times over hurdles in his life.  He still has lots of scope for progression.

He won his bumper at the track when he was trained by Philip Fenton, which is a nice bonus.  Dan Skelton has his horses in top form – he has had four winners and three seconds since last Sunday, and he probably would have had another winner had The Last Bar not fallen at the last at Warwick on Wednesday – and Value At Risk should run a big race.

VALUE AT RISK WON (ADV 4/1, SP 11/4)