Things We Learned » Supplementary fee a good bet

Supplementary fee a good bet 

It is an unusual situation, that the favourite and third favourite for the Derby (and the favourite for the Oaks, as it happens), need to be supplemented if they are going to run in the race. 

But it makes sense to pay the fee and have a go.  Purely from a value perspective, the payment of the fee in both cases represents a very good bet.  The supplementary fee is £85,000.  The winner of the Derby gets £850,650 in prize money.  At its base level, that’s a bet at odds of over 9/1.  Sir Dragonet is a 3/1 shot.  Telecaster is available at 6/1 and 7/1, with the doubt about his participation factored into those odds.  Of course these are bets that you should have.

And that’s just if they are win-only bets.  That’s assuming that there is no prize money for finishing second or third of fourth.  Of course there is.  £322,500 for second, £161,400 for third, £80,400 for fourth.  And there’s £40,350 for fifth and £20,250 for sixth.  It’s even a better bet than backing a 3/1 shot or a 6/1 shot or a 7/1 shot at 9/1.

You can liken it to an each-way bet, £850,650 for winning and an expected value of £188,100 for finishing second, third or fourth (the average of second, third and fourth-place prize money).  So, a £42,500 each-way bet with those potential returns works out as a bet at over 14/1, with very good each-way terms, ¼ the odds a place the first four.  With a consolation return of £40,350 (almost half your total stake) if you finish fifth and £20,250 if you finish sixth. 

That’s a very good bet to have on a 3/1 shot or a 7/1 shot.

And connections shouldn’t go ruing the fact that they didn’t pay the £1,100 forfeit fee or the £9,000 supplementary entry fee in early April.  Back then, Sir Dragonet hadn’t set foot on a racecourse, and Telecaster had been beaten by Bangkok in a Doncaster maiden.  Both horses would have been massive prices for the Derby then.  Paying the £85,000 now is a better bet than paying the £9,000 back then would have been, with the information that we had back then.

And that is without taking into account the upside of potentially winning the Derby, the prestige and the stallion value that goes with that.

Brivido still on Queen Anne shortlist 

It may pay to retain faith in Le Brivido as a potential winner of the Queen Anne Stakes at Royal Ascot, even on the back of his fifth-place finish in the Al Shaqab Lockinge Stakes at Newbury on Saturday.

Aidan O’Brien’s horse didn’t have a lot of luck in-running in the Lockinge Stakes.  He was stuck in behind horses at the back of the field at the two-furlong marker when Ryan Moore wanted to go forward.  His rider had to sit and suffer.  Le Brivido was the only horse who was still on the bridle as they passed the two-furlong pole.

By the time he could move towards the near side and get racing room, the protagonists had flown, but he still ran on well to finish fifth.  Mustashry was a clear winner, but Le Brivido finished just over a length behind runner-up Laurens, and in another couple of strides he probably would have finished third.

It is reasonable to expect that the son of Siyouni will come on again for this run.  It was just his second run back after a long break, his second run for Aidan O’Brien. 

There is precedent too.  Haradasun was only sixth behind Creachadoir in the Lockinge Stakes in 2008 on his first run for Aidan O’Brien, and he stepped forward on his second run a month later to win the Queen Anne.  And Declaration Of War was only fifth behind Farhh in the Lockinge Stakes in 2013 before going to Ascot and providing Aidan O’Brien with his third Queen Anne Stakes a month later.

Le Brivido appeared to stay the one-mile trip well on Saturday, and we know that he goes well at Ascot.  He won the Jersey Stakes two years ago on his only run to date there.  He could be a big player in the Queen Anne.

Oxx off the mark

It was good to see John Oxx get off the mark for the season at Cork on Wednesday evening, when Highland Dress won the Matchbook Straight Seven Maiden. 

The Godolphin colt was impressive too.  He made nice progress on the stands side on the run to the two-furlong marker to join the front rank, and he picked up impressively when Colm O’Donoghue asked him to, keeping on well to beat Arabeska by over two lengths, with the pair of them coming nicely clear of their rivals.

It was a good performance by the Shamardal colt on his racecourse debut.  Arabeska brought a nice level of form into the race, and Willie McCreery’s filly had race fitness on her side, yet Highland Dress beat her nicely, with the pair of them coming clear.  

By Shamardal out of a half-sister to Saoirse Abu, who won the Group 1 Phoenix Stakes and the Group 1 Moyglare Stud Stakes for Jim Bolger, it will be interesting to see where Highland Dress goes now.  He should improve for this experience, a John Oxx-trained colt who wins on his racecourse debut, and he will be interesting as he steps up in class.  He is a potentially classy colt for the John Oxx/Patrick Prendergast alliance, and the Jersey Stakes at Royal Ascot would be a legitimate target for him now. 

Hot addition good news 

It was very good news during the week when Too Darn Hot was added to the list of potential runners in today’s Tattersalls Irish 2000 Guineas.  It adds big intrigue to a race that was not lacking in depth anyway. 

We have the first and third from the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket, as well as last year’s Vertem Futurity Trophy runner-up – beaten just a head by the Guineas winner – having his first run since. 

Add to that three lightly-raced and progressive three-year-old colts in Shelir and Decrypt and I Am Superman, who have the potential to go a fair way beyond their current handicap ratings in the low 100s, as well as last year’s Royal Lodge Stakes winner.  Now add last year’s champion juvenile colt, the Champagne Stakes winner, the Dewhurst winner, dropping back down to a mile after finishing second in the Dante on his seasonal debut.  It’s a fascinating contest.

Good week

It has been a good week for owner Khalid Abdullah on both sides of the Irish Sea. 

In Britain, the Sir Michael Stoute-trained Jubiloso looked very good in winning a novice stakes at Newbury on Friday, and is now high in the betting for the Coronation Stakes.  And a half an hour after Jubiloso’s victory, Logician was impressive in winning the 10-furlong maiden on his racecourse debut. 

Then on Saturday, back at Newbury, the Roger Charlton-trained Headman won the London Gold Cup off top weight and a rating of 95, shaping like a Pattern race performer.

In Ireland, Heliac won the last race, the 10-furlong median auction fillies’ maiden, at Cork on Wednesday, Ger Lyons’ filly keeping on well for Colin Keane to win well.  That was the Champs Elysees filly’s seasonal debut, and it was just her third run ever, so she has lots of potential to progress with this experience under her belt.

That’s seven individual winners that Khalid Abdullah has had in Ireland so far this season from just 12 individual runners.  That’s a winners to runners strike rate of 58%.  Four of the winners trained by Ger Lyons, three of them trained by Dermot Weld.  Nine wins in total from 17 runs.  That’s a strike rate of almost 53%.

Kaftan and Brogue and Siskin and Heliac are all one for one this season, while it looks like Imaging has progressed again this term, and Georgeville has won his last two, and Peace Charter remains an exciting juvenile filly, who was an impressive winner of her maiden on her first run, and who ran a big race in defeat in the Group 3 Fillies’ Sprint Stakes at Naas on Sunday on her second.  

It’s an exciting team.  It’s great to see the famous green and white and pink colours so prevalent in Ireland these days.

© The Irish Field, 25th May 2019