12th-Feb-2022

I think that Eldorado Allen has a real chance here.  He has lots to find with Clan Des Obeaux and Royal Pagaille on official ratings, 17lb and 11lb respectively, but there are reasons for believing that neither of those horses will run up to their respective ratings, and there is every chance that Eldorado Allen can go beyond his, stepping up to three miles for the first time.

He was always a two-miler, he was a two-miler over hurdles and he ran in the Arkle last March, he finished second behind Shishkin, in front of Captain Guinness and Allmankind, who admittedly didn’t help each other. 

But he improved for a slight step up to almost two and a quarter miles in winning the Haldon Gold Cup at Exeter in November.  He was unlucky not to finish closer to First Flow in the Peterborough Chase next time, stepped up to two and a half miles for the first time, when he shaped as if he would appreciate a greater test of stamina, and he was out-paced from the second last fence last time against the talented Mister Fisher.

I was thinking that a stiff two and a half miles would be his thing, the Ryanair Chase or a truly-run Melling Chase at Aintree, but he is well worth a try at three miles now instead.  He is bred for stamina, he is a half-brother the Auvergnat, who won a Paddy Power Chase.

The main negative against Clan Des Obeaux is the stable’s form.  Paul Nicholls has had one winner from 37 runners in the last two weeks, Dolos at Sandown, and he has had many horses under-perform significantly.  Clan Des Obeaux is obviously a top class horse, he may be able to under-perform and still win, and he may not under-perform at all, but he may, and I am happy to be against him.

The main negative against Royal Pagaille isn’t as much a negative as an unknown, he is away from Haydock.  Haydock is a course specialists’ track, especially on soft or heavy ground, and four of Royal Pagaille’s best five performances have been at the Lancashire track.  Newbury is not dissimilar to Haydock, a flat left-handed track, but it is more like the old Haydock, the new Haydock is much sharper, and anyway, I think that it is more the Haydock terrain than the topography that makes it a specialists’ track. 

There are enough negatives about the two market leaders, and enough positives about Eldorado Allen, to merit backing Colin Tizzard’s horse at the price.

ELDORADO ALLEN WON (ADV 10/1, SP 6/1)