Past Winners » Tullius
Arod obviously is the one to beat here, he won the race last year and he has the best overall form going into the race. However, the recent rain is against him and it is in favour of Tullius. I think that Andrew Balding’s horse is the value of the race.
He was only fourth behind Arod in this race last year, but that was on good fast ground, and he was beaten less than four lengths. The easy ground today is a positive for Tullius and it is a negative for Arod. It should bring them closer today than the disparity in their respective prices suggests.
Tullius probably put up the best performance of his career when he won the Group 2 Sky Bet York Stakes last year, over 10 furlongs on fast ground, but he got away with fast ground at York. The balance of his form tells us that he is at his best with at least a little bit of cut in the ground.
He ran well on his debut this term in the Earl of Sefton Stakes at Newmarket, and he didn’t run badly last time in the Gordon Richards Stakes at Sandown, when he raced towards the inside up the home straight, probably on the slowest part of the track.
That should have brought him forward nicely with this race in mind. Andrew Balding’s horses are in top form, and it is interesting that he fits a visor to Tullius today for the first time. An extended mile on easy ground is just about ideal for Tullius, he is well drawn in stall one, and he could go close.
TULLIUS WON (ADV 7/1 [R4], SP 5/2)