Donn’s Bets

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Donn’s betting strategy is simple – he bets when he thinks that a horse is a bigger price than it should be. Most punters make the mistake of trying to back winners, without considering the odds. They try to back the most likely winner of a race rather than the horse who is most over-priced. Just because ‘tails’ has come up in the toss of a fair coin, it doesn’t mean that it was a value bet at 4/6. If you back ‘tails’ at 4/6 every time a coin is tossed, in the long run you will lose. By contrast, if you can back ‘tails’ at 6/4 every time a coin is tossed, then, in the long run, you will make a profit. That’s the key. It’s all about the odds.

Deck of cards

Take a fair deck of 52 cards. If you were to draw a card from that deck, there is one chance in two that it will be a red card (true odds of evens or 1/1), and one chance in four that it will be a club (odds of 3/1). Of the two possible outcomes, of course the more likely outcome is that a red card will be drawn. However, if you are offered odds of 4/5 about that outcome occurring, about a red card being drawn, that is not a bet that you should have. The odds offered are lower than the true odds for the event occurring, and the bet consequently offers poor value. Conversely, if you are offered 7/2 about drawing a club, that is a bet that you should have, as the offered odds are greater than the true odds. While on average you will only win once out of every four draws, in the long run, because you are betting at 7/2, you will make a profit. It is on this simple principle that Donn’s entire betting strategy is predicated.

So where’s the edge?

Unlike the draw of a card, the true probability of any horse winning any race is neither known nor measurable. Consequently, nobody knows what the true odds are. The odds on offer are governed by the laws of supply and demand, a function of bookmaker and bettor opinion. Therefore, the edge in betting usually lies in going against the crowd, an idea that Alan Potts encapsulated in his 1995 book of that title. If you can take a view that is contrary to that of the majority, and if your opinion is well informed and accurate, then, in the long run, you should make a profit.

Form

Crucial to this strategy is the accuracy of the assessment of a horse’s chance of winning a race. Donn bets on form, not on information. Most punters love to get the inside track. For the majority of bettors, it is a flawed system. (How many other people have received the same ‘inside information’, how many punters, how many bookmakers, and how will the odds be affected?) Donn prefers to bet on what he has seen rather than what he has heard. Therefore, almost all of his bets are on the higher class races where the form is there for all to see and potential for improvement can be estimated. This strategy has been refined over the course of the last 30 years, and has proved to be profitable every year since Donn’s tips were first published.

Some of Donn’s winners:

Expense Claim (Adv 7/1, SP 7/1), Arnold Lane (Adv 11/1, SP 9/1), Al Kazeem (Adv 14/1, SP 15/2), Mayson (Adv 5/1, SP 7/2), Tidal Bay (Adv 12/1, SP 9/1), Gibb River (SP 11/1), Raya Star (Adv 10/1, SP 15/2), Alderwood (Adv 9/2, SP 7/2), Sound Accord (Adv 14/1, SP 8/1), The Cheka (SP 12/1), Premio Loco (Adv 13/2, SP 5/1), Ikorodu Road (Adv 5/1, SP 4/1), Sunnyhillboy (Adv 10/1, SP 13/2), Son Of Flicka (Adv 28/1, SP 16/1), Finian’s Rainbow (Adv 11/2, SP 4/1), Teaforthree (Adv 7/1, SP 5/1), Aerial (Adv 11/2 [R4], SP 100/30), Ultimate (Adv 5/1, SP 4/1), Portrait King (Adv 6/1, SP 11/4), Oh Crick (Adv 17/2, SP 9/2), Giles Cross (Adv 7/1, SP 4/1), Grand Vision (Adv 8/1, SP 5/1), Restless Harry (Adv 9/2), Quel Esprit (Adv 7/2, SP 5/4), Somersby (Adv 11/2, SP 9/2), Consigliere (SP 10/1), Safran De Cotte (Adv 12/1, SP 13/2), Rubi Light (Adv 5/2), Astracad (Adv 5/1, SP 11/4), Voler La Vedette (Adv 6/1, SP 7/4), West End Rocker (Adv 14/1, SP 10/1), Deep Purple (Adv 14/1, SP 10/1), Overturn (Adv 7/2, SP 7/4), Exmoor Ranger (Adv 16/1, SP 12/1), Verinco (Adv 11/2, SP 3/1), Cirrus Des Aigles (Adv 8/1), Sirius Prospect (Adv 10/1, SP 13/2), Pastoral Player (Adv 10/1, SP 17/2), Lexington Bay (SP 12/1), Eton Rifles (Adv 10/1, SP 5/1), Doncaster Rover (Adv 7/1, SP 5/1), Twice Over (SP 11/2), Neebras (SP 4/1), Masamah (Adv 5/1), Labarinto (Adv 9/2), Nathaniel (Adv 15/2, SP 11/2), Highland Knight (Adv 14/1, SP 10/1), Misty For Me (Adv 7/2), Julienas (Adv 18/1, SP 12/1), Dancing Rain (SP 20/1), Sole Power (Adv 12/1, SP 8/1), Beaumont’s Party (Adv 8/1, SP 13/2), Al Kazeem (Adv 13/2, SP 9/2), Duncan (Adv 4/1 [R4], SP 11/4), St Moritz (Adv 8/1), Hawkeyethenoo (Adv 10/1, SP 15/2), Kings Gambit (Adv 6/1), Beshabar (SP 15/2), Indian Days (Adv 8/1), Eton Forever (SP 10/1), Zarkandar (Adv 7/1), Bostons Angel (Adv 16/1), Sizing Europe (SP 10/1), Companero (Adv 18/1, SP 16/1), Quinz (Adv 8/1), Act Of Kalanisi (Adv 10/1), Kempes (Adv 10/1, SP 5/1), Kilcrea Kim (Adv 9/1, SP 11/2), Tatenen (Adv 25/1, SP 22/1), West End Rocker (SP 10/1), Pandorama (Adv 7/1, SP 7/2), Jessies Dream (Adv 9/2), Credit Swap (Adv 25/1, SP 14/1), Poet’s Voice (Adv 16/1, SP 9/2), Herculean (SP 11/2), Forte Dei Marmi (Adv 7/1, SP 4/1), Sans Frontieres (Adv 11/2, SP 13/8), Rio De La Plata (Adv 9/1, SP 7/1), Illustrious Blue (Adv 10/1, SP 8/1), Side Glance (Adv 8/1, SP 9/2), Music Show (Adv 10/1, SP 13/2), Dangerous Midge (Adv 12/1, SP 17/2), Dandino (Adv 7/1), Victoire De Lyphar (Adv 12/1, SP 9/1), Lope De Vega (Adv 16/1, SP 10/1), Snow Fairy (Adv 16/1, SP 9/1), Les Fazzani (Adv 7/1, SP 9/2), Fareer (Adv 8/1, SP 11/2), Chasing Cars (Adv 16/1, SP 10/1), Kempes (Adv 12/1, SP 9/1), Golden Silver (Adv 7/1, SP 9/2), Imperial Commander (Adv 20/1, SP 7/1), Big Zeb (Adv 9/1), Weapon’s Amnesty (Adv 12/1), Razor Royal (Adv 33/1, SP 11/1), Get Me Out Of Here (Adv 7/1), An Cathaoir Mor (Adv 14/1, SP 7/1), Richard’s Sundance (Adv 16/1), Calgary Bay (Adv 14/1), Beroni (Adv 12/1, SP 7/1), Wolf Moon (Adv 18/1, SP 12/1), Queen Of Pentacles (Adv 14/1), Charm School (Adv 9/1), Opinion Poll (Adv 8/1), Total Gallery (Adv 11/1), Alandi (Adv 10/1, SP 5/1), Santo Padre (Adv 20/1, SP 14/1), Les Fazzani (Adv 14/1), Love Lockdown (Adv 10/1, SP 7/2), etc.

Analysis

When you sign up to receive Donn’s Bets, you will be one of a maximum of 30 clients who will be given access via the password protected Private Clients page on this site to Donn’s race analyses, the horses that he thinks are over-priced and the rationale behind his opinion, as follows:

1. At 10.15 am every Saturday detailing all of his thoughts on the day’s racing, together with recommended bets and stakes
2. At 10.15 am on every other day that there is racing on terrestrial television, together with recommended bets and stakes
3. At 10.15 am on Wednesday on weeks when there is at least one ante post market on the weekend’s racing, together with recommended bets and stakes
4. Sporadically when Donn thinks that there is an ante post bet worth having

Ante Post

Some of Donn’s most rewarding successes in the last couple of years have been in ante post betting on the big races:

War Of Attrition, advised at 40/1 for the 2006 Cheltenham Gold Cup – WON
Kicking King, advised at 40/1 for the 2005 Cheltenham Gold Cup – WON
Silent Oscar, advised at 40/1 for the 2007 ACC Bank Champion Hurdle – WON
Razor Royale, advised at 33/1 for the 2010 Racing Post Chase – WON
Son Of Flicka, advised at 28/1 for the 2012 Coral Cup – WON
Credit Swap, advised at 25/1 for the 2010 Cambridgeshire – WON
Joe Lively, advised at 25/1 for the 2009 Cotswold Chase – WON
Imperial Commander, advised at 20/1 for the 2010 Cheltenham Gold Cup – WON
Indian Ink, advised at 20/1 for the 2007 Coronation Stakes – WON
Bostons Angel, advised at 16/1 for the 2011 RSA Chase – WON
Poet’s Voice, advised at 16/1 for the 2010 Queen Elizabeth II Stakes – WON
Snow Fairy, advised at 16/1 for the 2010 Oaks – WON
Lucarno, advised at 16/1 for the 2007 St Leger – WON
Heltornic, advised at 16/1 for the 2007 Red Square Vodka Gold Cup – WON
Kelami, advised at 16/1 for the 2005 William Hill Chase WON
Butler’s Cabin, advised at 16/1 for the 2007 Irish Grand National – WON
Youmzain, advised each-way at 100/1 for the 2007 Arc de Triomphe – 2ND (beaten a head)
Dancing Rain, advised at 14/1 for the 2011 Oaks – WON
An Cathaoir Mor, advised at 14/1 for the 2010 Irish Arkle Chase – WON
Oh Crick, advised at 14/1 for the 2009 Grand Annual Chase – WON
Speciosa, advised at 14/1 for the 2006 1,000 Guineas – WON
Indian Pace, advised at 14/1 for 2008 Galway Hurdle – WON
Weapon’s Amnesty, advised at 12/1 for the 2010 RSA Chase – WON
Sunnyhillboy, advised at 10/1 for the 2012 Kim Muir Chase – WON
Kempes, advised at 10/1 for the 2011 Hennessy Gold Cup – WON
Music Show, advised at 10/1 for the 2010 Falmouth Stakes – WON
Henrythenavigator, advised at 10/1 for the 2008 2,000 Guineas – WON
Big Zeb, advised at 9/1 for the 2010 Queen Mother Champion Chase – WON
Charm School, advised at 9/1 for the 2009 November Handicap – WON

Net profit/loss from Donn’s tips:
(at €100 per point)

Subscribe to Donn’s Bets

If you wish to sign up, as long as there is a place available, you can just click one of the Buy Now buttons above and you will be taken to a secure PayPal page where you can pay by credit card or by your preferred method. You will then receive an introductory email which will go through the finer details of the service, and which will inform you of any ante post bets that are currently live. You will receive your first password as soon as your first recommended bet has been posted on the web site. All passwords are sent out by text message, so be sure to include your mobile number with your payment details.

Betting on horses, by its nature, is a risky business. This is not a sure-fire route to untold riches, but by signing up to receive Donn’s Bets, you will benefit from the knowledge that Donn has gained in over 30 years of betting on horses.