15th-Oct-2023

I am backing Certain Lad here.

He hasn’t won since he won the Strensall Stakes at York in 2020 but, rated 112 after that, he has dropped to a mark of 100, his lowest mark since he was a three-year-old, and signs are that a big run is forthcoming now.

His last two runs have been good.  On his penultimate outing, he ran well to finish second to impressive winner Dual Identity in a competitive handicap at Sandown.  He only finished fifth last time, in a 10-furlong handicap at Newbury, but he ran far better than that.  He was free and keen and up on the outside early on, and he hit the front before they got to the two-furlong marker.  It was understandable that he would weaken inside the final furlong on the heavy ground, but he kept on admirably.  He was only beaten a total of two and a half lengths.

Second in the John Smith’s Cup too in 2020, we know that he goes well at York, and we know that he can operate on easy ground.

CERTAIN LAD WON (ADV 15/2, SP 9/2)