15th-Dec-2023

I like Grey Dawning, the form of his run on his seasonal debut behind Stay Away Fay and The Changing Man is working out well, and he was impressive in winning a graduation chase at Haydock last time.  But he is short, and that intermediate trip would have been too sharp for the runner-up Gaillard Du Mesnil.  He may well win today, but I am happy to be against him at the price.

I think that Ginny’s Destiny is over-priced against him.  The Yeats gelding finished five lengths behind Grey Dawning in the Grade 2 Leamington Novices’ Hurdle at Haydock last January when he was with Tom Lacey, but already he looks like a better chaser than hurdler.  He ran well for a long way in a competitive novices’ handicap chase at Cheltenham’s October meeting on his first run for Paul Nicholls, and he stepped forward from that last time when he was impressive in winning another novices’ handicap chase at the November meeting.

Crebilly arrived as a big challenger at the second last that day before coming down, but Ginny’s Destiny hadn’t really been asked for his effort at that point by Harry Cobden, and he stayed on well up the hill.  He is 6lb worse off with Crebilly today, but it still doesn’t make sense that he is around twice his price.

Also, he is rated just 3lb inferior to Grey Dawning, and he receives 3lb from him today.

More than that though, he is a progressive young chaser who is on a nice upward trajectory now, who jumps well, who goes on the ground and who is proven at the course.  His chance has been under-rated by the market in my book.

GINNY’S DESTINY WON (ADV 7/2, SP 5/2)